A Fragile Ceasefire: The Complex Landscape of Israel-Hamas Negotiations
The agreement reached between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is set to take effect at 8:30 AM on January 19th. This ceasefire is not significantly different from previous proposals, which have consistently fallen through until now. The primary catalyst for this renewed willingness to negotiate has been the evolving international context that has compelled both Hamas and the Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu to engage in discussions following extended periods of conflict and uncertainty.
Over the past year, numerous negotiations have taken place where each party laid down their conditions and took a hard stance. Several times, an agreement appeared to be on the verge of completion, only for Netanyahu to withdraw at the last moment, often introducing new conditions that made a resolution unattainable. Political analysts have accused Netanyahu of deliberately sabotaging negotiations for personal political gain. In June 2024, U.S. President Joe Biden stated that there was substantial reason to believe Netanyahu was protracting the conflict to secure his political future.
The composition of Netanyahu's government has also played a significant role in the ongoing stalemate. His coalition, which includes several right-wing Jewish parties vehemently opposed to any form of agreement, has threatened to collapse the government repeatedly over the last year. Recently, Itamar Ben Gvir, the Minister of National Security and leader of a far-right party, remarked that their political influence had consistently hindered the advancement of a ceasefire agreement.
As long as the war persisted, Netanyahu seemed secure in his role, deflecting scrutiny away from Hamas's attacks on October 7, 2023, and steering clear of the corruption charges he faced before the war began. This situation was further bolstered by the apparent ineffectiveness of the Biden administration, which was unable to sway Netanyahu despite numerous efforts to foster a ceasefire.
However, changes in the geopolitical landscape have recently fortified Netanyahu's position. Israel has gained a swift victory against Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Iran, historically Israel's primary adversary, has faced significant weakening. Likewise, the end of the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad has eliminated another long-standing threat to Israel.
Hamas too has seen a decline in its influence following the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar in October, further diminishing its standing among the Gaza population. In a notable shift, the group had reportedly resumed private negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, signaling its readiness for a ceasefire.
A pivotal role seems to have also been played by Donald Trump's victory in last year's U.S. elections. Trump vowed to exert pressure on Hamas to secure the return of Israeli hostages by January 20, the date of his inauguration. Israeli reports indicated that negotiations led by Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, were marked by a brusque tone towards Netanyahu, emphasizing Trump’s urgency in achieving a political win through a ceasefire declaration.
Despite this newfound agreement, Netanyahu’s government faces the risk of destabilization. Ben Gvir has openly threatened to revoke his support if the ceasefire is approved. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, another far-right figure, has indicated that he would only maintain support if Israel would recommence military operations to completely obliterate Hamas following the release of hostages. While both leaders voted against the ceasefire agreement, they have not yet opted to resign or announce any further political maneuvers.
According to various Israeli media outlets, Netanyahu may leverage the supportive shift brought by the new Trump administration to restructure his government, thereby neutralizing the threats posed by far-right factions. Still, it remains clear that Netanyahu is reserving the option to resume conflict if ongoing negotiations falter or conditions evolve unfavorably. Yossi Fuchs, Netanyahu’s chief of staff, recently noted that the ceasefire agreement encompasses the potential for re-engagement in hostilities at the conclusion of the first phase if the subsequent negotiations are unproductive.
The agreement itself comprises three distinct phases. The initial phase, already established, will last 42 days and entails the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees. Concurrently, discussions for the subsequent phases will persist, aiming to secure the release of all Israeli hostages and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
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