A New Dawn for Syria: Russia Shifts Allegiance Amidst Regime Collapse
On Monday, just a day after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, the Syrian embassy in Moscow made a significant change by replacing its flag from the regime's red, white, and black to the green, white, and black representing the newly consolidated anti-Assad forces. This swift transition signals Russia's attempt to adapt to the rapidly evolving political landscape in Syria, a country where it has been a staunch ally of the Assad dynasty for decades.
Until recently, Russia maintained a formidable military presence in Syria, controlling essential airspace and operating the naval base in Tartous, its only naval facility outside former Soviet territories, alongside the Khmeimim airbase located near Latakia. This military infrastructure was crucial in ensuring the Assad regime's survival, especially during significant military setbacks against rebel forces. However, as anti-Assad forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), began making substantial advances, Russia's support for Assad waned. Analysts suggest that the ongoing war in Ukraine diverted Russia's attention and resources, limiting its ability to save the regime.
Anton Mardasov, an analyst at a Moscow think tank, noted the toll that Russia's involvement in Ukraine has taken, commenting, "The cost was Syria." This shift in focus presaged a reevaluation of alliances as it became clear that the Assad regime could no longer maintain its grip on power.
Russia originally intervened in the Syrian conflict in 2015 when Assad faced existential threats from rebel groups. Partnering with Iran and Hezbollah, Russia opted for a major air campaign, targeting what it termed 'terrorist factions,' including the now-defunct Islamic State, while simultaneously carrying out brutal bombings against Western-affiliated rebels, many of whom had ties to jihadist elements.
The Islamic State’s defeat in 2019 at the hands of a US-led coalition, supported by Kurdish ground forces, allowed Assad to reclaim significant territory but at a staggering human cost. Following the decline of dissenting forces, President Putin proclaimed an aggressive stance against any resurgence of terrorism, making no distinctions between actual terror groups and opposition fighters.
In swift succession, Russian narratives adapted to the new realities of the battlefield. On the eve of the fall of Syria's capital to rebel forces, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's language shifted from labeling the opposition as terrorists to recognizing them as 'armed opposition' nearly overnight. This was indicative of a broader strategy to remain relevant as power dynamics shifted.
As Assad fled the country, Russia's Foreign Ministry claimed to have established contacts with all Syrian political factions, underscoring its intention to pivot towards the incoming governance. The changing flags on Syrian embassies across Russia echoed a broader media narrative transition, which now depicts Assad as a figure of corruption responsible for Syria's devastation, distancing any complicity from Moscow's role in the destruction wrought during the war.
Despite these political shifts, Putin has yet to engage diplomatically with Assad, posing questions about the future relationship between Russia and the new governance in Syria. The motivations behind Russia's strategic interest in Syria lie largely in its military foothold deemed critical for operations in the Mediterranean, especially as the Black Sea fleet faces complications amid the Ukraine conflict.
Recent satellite imagery confirms that Russia has not yet evacuated key military bases, indicating a desire to negotiate terms with the emerging government. Meanwhile, HTS has publicly stated that it holds no animosity toward Russia, declaring intentions for potential positive relations if Moscow ceases its support for the Assad regime. The prospect of maintaining access to Russian military facilities remains unconfirmed, leaving the future of Russian-Syrian relations uncertain.
In summary, as Syria enters a new chapter under anti-Assad governance, Russia's shift in allegiance reflects not only a tactical reassessment of its geopolitical interests but also a broader narrative of political survival amid significant regional upheaval.
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