A New Dawn for Ukrainian-Hungarian Relations: A Cautious Optimism Following Orbán's Defeat

Like many Ukrainians, Oleh Kupchak was filled with joy last weekend when Péter Magyar won Hungary's election, ending Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. "We were euphoric. Everyone was following the results closely, there were toasts," said Kupchak, who has visited Budapest multiple times. "We didn’t love Orbán," he added. Ukraine celebrated Orbán's landslide defeat with laughter and memes, comparing him to Jabba the Hutt from Star Wars and sharing images of him fleeing from a drone. Others depicted him sitting on a bench in Russia alongside pro-Kremlin figures like former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The widespread joy felt by Ukrainians regarding Orbán's ousting was understandable. As the Kremlin's most formidable supporter in the EU, Orbán ran an aggressively anti-Ukrainian election campaign, accusing Kyiv of plotting to sabotage energy installations and even threatening him and his family with violence. Tensions between Kyiv and Budapest had escalated, especially after Orbán blamed Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for delays in repairing the Druzhba pipeline following a Russian drone attack, insinuating that Zelenskyy's actions were politically motivated to disrupt Orbán's reelection. In the run-up to the election, Hungarians encountered political advertising that portrayed Zelenskyy in a negative light, illustrating him begging for EU money and suggesting ties to pro-war factions. With Orbán's party now out of power, Ukrainian politicians and analysts remain cautiously optimistic, though they advise against expecting rapid improvements in bilateral relations. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine's parliamentary foreign affairs committee, remarked that a unique window of opportunity is emerging for Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, interpreting the election result as a strategic loss for Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Merezhko, Orbán's removal disrupts Putin's ambitions to form an anti-Ukrainian coalition in Europe, which also involved Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Magyar is anticipated to lift Orbán's veto on €90 billion in EU aid to Ukraine once his government is fully established, which Kyiv urgently needs. Hungary may also reverse its block on new sanctions against Russia, allowing Brussels to release EU funds previously withheld due to democratic backsliding in Hungary. While there is hope for a more constructive approach from Magyar, concerns linger regarding unresolved bilateral issues. Magyar has indicated he would not oppose Ukraine's EU accession but does not support expedited membership and advocates for a referendum on the matter. Additionally, the status of Ukraine's ethnic Hungarian minority has been a historic source of strain, exacerbated by Orbán's manipulation. A key test of Magyar's commitment to improved relations would be the return of funds seized from Ukrainian armored vehicles, which his predecessor unlawfully confiscated. President Zelenskyy sent his congratulations to Magyar following the election, emphasizing the importance of constructive cooperation between Ukraine and Hungary. In contrast to the approach of the previous U.S. administration, Magyar has acknowledged Ukraine as a victim of Russian aggression and has expressed support for its sovereignty. Despite this, analysts caution against viewing Magyar as a definite ally for Ukraine. "He is not a pro-Ukrainian politician; he is pro-Hungarian," said Serhiy Sydorenko, editor of the European Pravda newspaper, suggesting that Zelenskyy would need to navigate relations carefully. Hungarian society has largely adopted anti-Ukrainian narratives after years of Orbán's propaganda, indicating that changing public opinion will take time. Political analyst Marianna Prysiazhniuk advised that Zelenskyy should approach Hungary delicately, prioritizing the establishment of a reliable European partnership. Looking ahead, the two leaders are expected to meet next month in Romania during a gathering of NATO's eastern European member states. Kupchak, who has traveled extensively between Ukraine and Hungary, hopes Magyar's leadership will foster a change in the imperial mindset he perceives within Hungary, which he attributes to its Austro-Hungarian past. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2