A New Pact in the South Caucasus: Armenia and Azerbaijan Forge a Peace Agreement Amidst a Shifting Power Landscape

In a historic step towards peace, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting in Abu Dhabi to finalize a peace agreement that marks a significant turning point in their relationship after nearly four decades of conflict. This meeting, the first formal discussion since both leaders agreed on a draft peace text, underscores an evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly in the wake of Russia's engagement in Ukraine. Richard Giragosian, the Founding Director of the Regional Studies Centre in Yerevan, emphasizes the importance of this gathering as it represents a departure from Russia's traditional role as a mediator in the region, which has been weakened by its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine. As Yerevan and Baku take strides towards normalizing their relations, the absence of Russian influence – previously a significant factor in the Armenia-Azerbaijan dynamic – signifies a monumental shift. Both nations have distanced themselves from Moscow amid deteriorating relations that stem from the Kremlin’s diminishing authority in the South Caucasus, particularly following Azerbaijan's recent military successes in the disputed Karabakh region. The consequences of this meeting extend beyond bilateral relations; they may reshape the entire geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. Analysts suggest that both nations are inclined to defy Moscow’s historical grip by pursuing their interests independently. Giragosian notes that Russia's weakening position is not just a short-lived aberration, but a foreshadowing of challenges to come, particularly with rising tensions in Armenia and the potential for destabilizing actions by a Russia that is eager to regain its influence. Armenia has lately become the target of disinformation campaigns from Russia, aimed at destabilizing the current government and inciting fear of increased military presence. Recent arrests in Armenia, linked to alleged coup attempts, further underscore the fragile political landscape. However, these incidents also reflect a broader context of increasing assertiveness by Armenia, driven by lessons learned from Russia’s recent military failures and a collective desire to reinforce national sovereignty. Russian policies are increasingly scrutinized in Armenia as officials recognize that reliance on Russian support has proven unreliable. Recent political developments in Yerevan highlight a growing shift towards Europe, with plans for deeper integration into European Union structures. This transition is seen as necessary to escape the historical patterns of dependence on Russia. As Armenia and Azerbaijan collaborate on their futures, Turkey also emerges as a pivotal player in the region’s dynamics. The Turkish government is keen to restore relations with Armenia, driven by economic interests that could foster stability in the region. Giragosian asserts that successful economic collaboration could lead to mutual benefits, promoting transport and trade, which will echo positively across the South Caucasus. However, the shadow of Russian dissatisfaction looms large. The redirecting of diplomatic ties away from Moscow could catalyze retaliatory tendencies from the Kremlin, leading to a potential resurgence of regional instability. As Armenia approaches upcoming elections, the specter of external interference, particularly from Russia, raises significant concerns that necessitate vigilance from Yerevan. Looking forward, Giragosian warns that the real challenge lies not just in navigating reforms within Armenia but in preparing for the unpredictable reactions of a weakened Russia. The future, post-Putin, holds potential pitfalls that could further complicate the South Caucasus’ landscape of power. As Armenia steadily asserts its independence, it also walks a fine line, balancing new partnerships while remaining cautious of an agitated neighbor seeking to reclaim lost influence. In conclusion, the ongoing discussions in Abu Dhabi could herald a new era for Armenia and Azerbaijan, signaling not merely a cessation of hostilities but a comprehensive roadmap towards lasting peace—one that will require ongoing diligence to navigate the slowly shifting power dynamics in the region. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2