Alarm Bells for PP: Vox's Surge Threatens Feijóo's Aspirations

In recent weeks, alarm bells have been ringing within Génova, as the Popular Party (PP) begins to grapple with the implications of an unstoppable rise in support for Vox. While the PP has remained confident in various electoral estimates, excluding the National Center for Sociological Research (CIS), the party is now confronted with a potential voter exodus to Santiago Abascal's increasingly popular Vox. Reports indicate a significant shift, with voters who previously supported Alberto Núñez Feijóo in 2023 now leaning towards Vox, ostensibly undermining the PP's prospects for establishing a solo government. The newspaper El Mundo noted just a month ago that around one million voters have shifted allegiance. According to the latest barometer from 40db for El País and SER, the PP has experienced a notable decline, dropping three points to its lowest figure since the general elections, while Vox achieved a record 17.4% support. A recent poll conducted by Iván Redondo, a former chief of staff to Pedro Sánchez, added to the concern, predicting that the PSOE might emerge as the leading political force with 130 seats. In contrast, the PP could fall to just 111 representatives, while Vox would climb to 74 seats. Although the Iván Redondo poll is not taken as seriously in Génova, the growing trend is causing increasing unease within the party's offices. With elections set to occur in Castilla y León in five months, followed by Andalucía, the urgency to recalibrate their approach is palpable. The potential for early elections in regions where Vox is withholding budgets from the PP, such as Extremadura and Aragón, adds further pressure. Internal PP polls reveal that Vox's ascent is not just confined to national politics; its presence is growing regionally as well. In the Region of Murcia, Vox may soon become the second-largest political force, surpassing the PSOE. This surge is echoed in private polls in Galicia, where Vox has gained traction recently. In Castilla y León, which will be the first region to vote, there is rising concern that the PSOE could regain its leading position, with Vox poised to demand entry into the government once more. A stark contrast to previous projections that saw the PP nearing an absolute majority in the polls. The management of crises, such as wildfires this summer, and the momentum from Vox, despite the party not yet naming a candidate to replace García-Gallardo, have complicated the PP's path to victory. An internal source lamented that the youth demographic is almost disappearing from their support base. Recent discussions in both El Mundo and ABC have also floated the possibility of early elections in Extremadura and Aragón, likely to coincide with the polls in Castilla y León. This stems from the challenge the PP faces in reaching a budget agreement with Vox, which has paralyzed the legislative process. President María Guardiola hinted at the necessity of such early elections, stating that Extremadura can't depend on political maneuvering. On a different note, in Aragón, Jorge Azcón has taken a more reserved approach, emphasizing that his primary goal is to pass the budget, while expressing the possibility that he might change his tune depending on political developments. In Andalucía, the political landscape is similar. President Juanma Moreno Bonilla confirmed he would only call for early elections if Pedro Sánchez did the same, suggesting a reluctance to act first amidst rising tensions. Amid these developments, the health management failures that have led to significant delays in breast cancer diagnoses for at least 2000 women have sparked public outrage and complicate the PP's already precarious standing. In light of Vox's meteoric rise, there are growing calls within the PP for Feijóo to adopt a more decisive strategy, avoiding any uncertainty in his stance. A faction within the party remains doubtful as to whether Feijóo's tough rhetoric on immigration will deter voters from Abascal or draw support from disillusioned PSOE voters. With Vox riding high in popularity, there is a pressing need for the PP to arrest this trend if they hope to retain their relevance in Spanish politics. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2