Andrej Babiš Faces Tough Road Ahead in Forming Czech Government After Election Victory

Andrej Babiš has officially met with Czech President Petr Pavel and initiated discussions with other political leaders as he embarks on the challenging task of forming a stable government. His party, ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens), celebrated a victory in the recent parliamentary elections, securing 34.5% of the vote and a provisional 80 seats in the 200-member parliament. However, the party fell short of a majority. In the election held over the weekend, the center-right Spolu coalition, led by outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala, came in second with 23.4% of the vote. Ahead of the talks that began on Sunday, Babiš emphasized the importance of presenting a solution that complies with both Czech and European laws. Babiš, a polarizing figure who previously served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021 amid widespread protests, hailed the election results as the pinnacle of his political career. Yet, he faces substantial challenges to achieve both the prime ministership and the necessary support for his proposed single-party minority government. Political analysts have noted that, even if Babiš manages to form a government, he seems unlikely to join forces with populist leaders such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán or Slovakia's Robert Fico, thereby distancing himself from what is referred to as the EU's 'awkward squad.' The political landscape remains complicated, as three parties have already ruled out forming a coalition with ANO, which could compel Babiš to seek support from fringe right-wing groups. Babiš stated his intent to hold discussions with the far-right SPD and the Motorists Party, expressing a goal of leading a government solely directed by ANO. As the seventh richest man in the country with a net worth estimated at $3.9 billion, Babiš campaigned on promises of economic growth, higher wages, increased pensions, and lower taxes. He has also vowed to oppose the EU's migration pact and green initiatives while ending the Czech initiative to support Ukraine, choosing instead to back Kyiv solely through the EU framework. ANO shares some policy similarities with the far-right SPD, particularly regarding opposition to EU climate and immigration strategies. However, Babiš has openly rejected the SPD’s extreme positions, such as advocating for 'Czexit,' or withdrawal from the EU, reaffirming his stance as pro-European and pro-NATO. While both the Motorists and SPD have shown willingness to engage in talks with ANO, there is uncertainty about the extent of their support for a minority government and how long such support would last. Analysts highlight that the SPD's post-election performance was not as strong as anticipated, which could dilute their bargaining power in potential negotiations for a confidence-and-supply deal. Even if Babiš can present a multiparty agreement representing a majority in parliament, he may not be out of the woods. President Pavel has previously stated his intention not to appoint any ministers who endorse exiting the EU or NATO. Moreover, he is reportedly seeking legal advice regarding any potential conflicts of interest pertaining to Babiš himself. Pavel holds constitutional authority to reject Babiš's bid for the prime ministership if he deems the solution presented as inadequate, though this is considered an unlikely scenario. European far-right leaders, including Orbán and France's Marine Le Pen, have congratulated Babiš on his election results, signaling a potential rise in nationalistic parties across Europe. Despite ANO being associated with far-right factions in the European Parliament, there remains ambiguity concerning how closely Babiš will align with the anti-EU camp. Analysts suggest that his political approach is more pragmatic than steeped in ideology, making it improbable that he would challenge Brussels as long as the Czech Republic relies on EU funding and his business interests thrive within the bloc. Czech political institutions are likely to impose checks on Babiš's ambitions, with the Senate able to veto proposed electoral laws and constitutional amendments, thereby requiring approval for judicial appointments to the constitutional court. The road ahead for Babiš appears to be fraught with challenges as he navigates the complexities of governing amidst a divided political landscape. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2