Asteroid 2024 YR4: Impact Probability Rises to 31% as Observations Continue
Recent observations of the asteroid 2024 YR4 have revealed an alarming increase in its probability of impacting Earth. As of now, the estimated risk stands at 31% for a potential impact on December 22, 2032. Discovered on December 27 of last year using the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile, this asteroid spans approximately 55 meters in diameter. Such an asteroid, if it were to collide with Earth, could pose serious risks, especially to localized areas, as indicated by the European Space Agency (ESA).
Initially, soon after its discovery, automated alert systems predicted a very low likelihood of impact. However, its risk probability fluctuated significantly—from 12% to 23%, then down to just 2%, and now back up to 31%, according to the latest update from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
The ramifications of an impact are significant, affecting a vast geographical zone that includes the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, across the Atlantic Ocean into Africa, the Arabian Sea, and southern Asia, as noted by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
As the asteroid remains visible until approximately April, ongoing observations will be conducted by ground-based telescopes associated with IAWN to gather more data on its orbit. However, after April, 2024 YR4 will become too faint to track until around June 2028. On a positive note, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope is slated to observe the asteroid in March 2025, which will aid in determining its size with greater precision.
As more observations are compiled, a clearer understanding of the asteroid's impact probability will emerge. There remains a possibility that 2024 YR4 might be dismissed as a potential hazard, akin to many previous objects that have appeared on NASA’s risk list. Conversely, it is also conceivable that its impact likelihood could continue to escalate, as cautioned by NASA officials.
Currently, the asteroid is classified at level 3 on the Torino impact risk scale, meaning it presents a close encounter that merits significant attention from both astronomers and the general public. Its orbit around the sun is elongated and eccentric, and it is presently moving away from Earth almost in a straight line, which complicates efforts to predict its trajectory with utmost accuracy.
In summary, while the increased risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 warrants further evaluation and monitoring, continued global collaboration and advanced observational technologies will be pivotal in ensuring the safety of our planet.
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