Avoiding War: The Syrian Druze and the Israeli Government's Tense Standoff
On Sunday evening, tensions in the small Syrian town of Jaramana, located near the capital Damascus, were diffused, preventing a potential crisis that could have sparked a significant Israeli ground invasion in southern Syria. Jaramana is home to a notable Druze population, although they are not the majority. Clashes earlier in the week resulted in two deaths, stemming from a conflict between a Druze militia and government security forces that were dispatched from central Syria.
The Druze, a religious minority distinct from Islam, have a presence not only in Syria but also in Lebanon and Israel. The Syrian security forces involved in the clashes are primarily comprised of fighters from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which played a role in forcing dictator Bashar al-Assad to flee just three months prior.
In a show of solidarity, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Israel Katz instructed the Israeli army to prepare for an intervention to protect the Druze community in Jaramana, asserting that they were under threat from the extremist elements within the Syrian regime. Jaramana is strategically located about sixty kilometers from the Israel-Syria border and a mere five kilometers from Damascus.
An Israeli military operation in Jaramana would have constituted an extensive invasion, surpassing the scale of the invasion in southern Lebanon which began in October, and would also be larger than the engagement in the Gaza Strip, which extends approximately forty kilometers. Invading this close to Damascus would signify an outright declaration of war against the interim Syrian president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, who previously commanded jihadist forces.
Fortunately, by Sunday evening, a public display of reconciliation unfolded between the government forces and the Druze community. Security personnel were seen waving the Druze flag, while influential figures from the Druze population expressed their desire to remain an integral part of Syria. This display of unity appeared aimed at dissuading Israeli intervention by demonstrating that the clashes were being resolved internally.
Last December, amidst the tumultuous fall of Assad's regime, the Israeli military entered Syria, seizing control of a number of key military positions to establish a 'buffer zone' intended for indefinite maintenance. In the following weeks, the Israeli Air Force targeted bases left unguarded by the Syrian army, systematically weakening Syria's military capabilities. Netanyahu has since called for the complete demilitarization of the provinces bordering Israel: Quneitra, Daraa, and al-Suwayda, which could pose a serious dilemma for the current Syrian leadership.
If President al-Sharaa were to acquiesce to Netanyahu's demands, he would risk appearing weak to his forces, many of whom are battle-hardened veterans from various extremist organizations that view the war against Israel as a critical objective. Conversely, rejecting Israel's request could precipitate conflict, a precarious situation for Syria, which is still grappling with the aftermath of international sanctions and in dire need of foreign investments to rebuild from years of civil strife.
Additionally, Israel is exploring potential programs to allow Syrian Druze to work in areas controlled by Israel, particularly in the strategically important Golan Heights. This initiative reflects a complex geopolitical scenario where the dynamics of ethnic and religious communities are intertwined with national aspirations and international relations.
Related Sources: