Azerbaijani Plane Crash in Kazakhstan: Investigations Highlight Possible Missile Strike
The tragic crash of an Azerbaijani plane in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, which claimed the lives of 38 of the 67 individuals on board, has raised urgent questions regarding its cause. While the official cause remains unknown, signs of shrapnel damage on the wreckage have led experts to suggest a possible missile strike from Russian air defenses could be responsible.
In response to the incident, both Russian and Kazakh authorities have urged the public to avoid speculation and to allow for a thorough investigation to take place. Despite these calls for patience, many experts are looking closely at the circumstances surrounding the crash.
The Embraer 190 aircraft was on a scheduled flight from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Chechnya, a region that has recently been the target of Ukrainian drone strikes. Notable drone attacks were reported on the same day in nearby regions, including Ingushetia and North Ossetia. Jean-Paul Troadec, a former director at France's BEA air accident investigation agency, pointed out that the signs seen on the wreckage lead to a probable conclusion that the aircraft was brought down by a missile.
According to Russian military expert Yury Podolyaka, the holes identified in the wreckage resemble the damage typically caused by anti-aircraft missile systems. Troadec echoed this sentiment, drawing a parallel with Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was tragically downed in 2014 by a surface-to-air missile, resulting in 298 fatalities.
Conversely, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned against drawing conclusions before the investigation concludes. He emphasized that premature hypotheses regarding the cause could be misleading. Meanwhile, the situation took another twist when Azerbaijan Airlines initially claimed that the plane encountered a flock of birds—a statement they later rescinded.
Russian aviation authorities have also considered the bird strike theory as a possible cause, but experts have dismissed it, noting that a bird collision typically would not incapacitate a plane to the extent witnessed in this incident. Moreover, a regional department within Kazakhstan's health ministry floated an alternative hypothesis, mentioning an explosion from a canister onboard; however, details remain scarce.
Adding to the confusion is the plane's unusual trajectory, which strayed far from its intended course, ultimately crashing on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea in Aktau. It is unclear why the aircraft deviated; some reports suggest there was an emergency situation on board that forced the pilot to reroute. Airlines tracking service Flightradar24 indicated that the flight experienced significant GPS interference at the time of the crash, with the plane ceasing to transmit positional data for several minutes.
The passenger list comprised 62 passengers and 5 crew members. As reported, 38 individuals lost their lives, while 29 survivors, including three children, were reported. Among the passengers were 37 from Azerbaijan, six from Kazakhstan, three from Kyrgyzstan, and 16 from Russia. The crew members were all Azerbaijani nationals. Fourteen survivors have already been flown back to Azerbaijan, while nine survivors from Russia, including a child, have been repatriated to their homeland.
As the investigation unfolds, it remains to be seen what definitive conclusions will be drawn regarding this tragic incident and whether accountability will be established in relation to the possible involvement of military forces.
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