Biden's Urgent Push for Ukraine Support Amid Looming Transition to Trump
As President Joe Biden enters his final two months in office, he is racing against the clock to deliver the crucial support that Ukraine needs to withstand the ongoing Russian invasion. The White House is actively transferring weapons, alongside an urgent distribution of around $6 billion in remaining aid to Ukraine. Advocates for Kyiv are calling for the repeal of restrictions on long-range weaponry and the identification of alternative funding sources before Trump potentially re-enters the White House in January.
In the lead-up to transitions between presidencies, the tradition dictates that one president serves at a time, and that means Biden holds the reins of U.S. foreign policy until Trump is inaugurated. Nevertheless, the possibility of a drastic shift in Ukraine support under the Trump administration casts doubt on the longevity of any significant changes made during Biden’s tenure.
Biden is set to host Trump for a critical meeting at the White House; this encounter will provide an opportunity for Biden to stress the importance of continuing financial assistance to Ukraine, an area where Trump and Biden rarely align. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized in a recent interview that Biden's aim in the next 70 days is to convey the idea that turning away from Ukraine would invite further instability in Europe.
Sullivan, however, was not forthcoming about the likelihood of a new funding bill for additional aid to Ukraine. Concerns are mounting from within Republican circles about future support for Ukraine. Notably, Senator Bill Hagerty, a prominent Trump supporter, indicated that many Americans prioritize domestic sovereignty over international obligations, hinting at a potential reduction in support for Ukraine under a Trump administration.
Currently, there is $6 billion in outstanding aid that can be distributed before Biden’s term concludes, but the prospect of pushing through another aid package appears dim. As it stands, the U.S. military presence in Ukraine, including defense contractors servicing F-16s and Patriot missile defense systems, reflects ongoing support, while delivery of missile interceptors is being expedited in response to winter threats from Russia.
In anticipation of a potential Trump cutback in military aid to Ukraine, a group of U.S. and European officials pre-emptively transferred authority for weapon deliveries to NATO, thereby creating a buffer against sudden shifts in U.S. policy. Richard Fontaine, an expert from the Center for a New American Security, pointed out that any significant withdrawal of U.S. military assistance would drastically alter the situation on the ground in Ukraine, a move that could lead to dire consequences for effective Ukrainian defense.
The Biden administration's recent track record on foreign policy presents a stark contrast to its earlier aspirations. As its tenure nears its end, the administration has seen waning influence in Ukraine and the Middle East. Frustration has mounted among some foreign diplomats regarding Biden's perceived hesitance in deploying resources to support Ukraine more aggressively.
Despite achievements in sanctions and cold diplomacy, commentators like David Kramer from the George W. Bush Institute highlight a trend of increasing dissatisfaction within Ukraine regarding U.S. decision-making processes. Notably, there seems to be a consensus among advocates for Ukraine that Biden should take necessary risks now while still in office, particularly concerning the provision of long-range missiles.
Potential strategies include utilizing $5 billion in Russian central bank reserves. Such actions must happen swiftly to ensure they are effective and impactful in the ongoing conflict.
However, as attention shifts toward potential negotiations for peace, observers note that substantial negotiations will likely wait for Trump's presidency, placing Ukraine in a more precarious negotiating stance. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appear unconcerned about Biden's preferences, thinking ahead to the impending change in U.S. leadership.
As the deadline to bolster Ukraine's defenses looms, Biden's administration must navigate a complex web of domestic and foreign interests. The stakes are high, and with fewer days left on the calendar, time is of the essence to bolster Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression.
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