Botswana Prepares for Pivotal Elections Amidst Economic Challenges

On Wednesday, Botswana is set to vote for a new unicameral parliament, which also serves as the foundation for electing the country’s next president. Historically, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), a center-right political group, has maintained dominance in the nation's electoral landscape since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966, winning every election in the past 58 years. However, this election cycle presents a cloud of uncertainty as public support for the BDP has waned, primarily due to a deteriorating economic situation. Despite the challenges, the first-past-the-post electoral system may still skew in favor of the BDP, especially as the two main opposition parties have failed to form a coalition as they did in the 2019 elections.

The current president, Mokgweetsi Masisi of the BDP, is campaigning for a second and final five-year term. Voters will cast ballots for 61 of the 69 seats in the National Assembly, with the president and the president of the Assembly serving as automatic members, alongside six deputies who are appointed by the government.

In a surprising twist for a long-standing ruling party, the BDP has adopted the slogan 'change' for this election campaign. This raises eyebrows as the opposition, led by Dumelang Saleshando of the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), accuses the government of borrowing ideas from its rivals. The BCP, which previously participated in a coalition with other left-leaning parties under the umbrella of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) in 2019, is now contesting elections independently.

Another significant player in this year’s elections is the Patriotic Front (BPF), a populist party founded by former president Ian Khama, who previously served from 2008 to 2018. Khama's departure from the BDP created a split in the party, and he now seeks to capitalize on the sentiment against Masisi, whom he accuses of authoritarianism. After residing in exile for two years, Khama has returned to campaign for BPF, further complicating the electoral dynamics.

The key issue dominating this election revolves around the economy. Botswana holds the title of the second-largest diamond producer in the world, with diamonds accounting for a staggering 80 percent of its exports and a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP). However, the country faced a significant downturn as diamond sales from Debswana, the state-owned enterprise operating alongside the British multinational De Beers, halved in the first half of 2024. This sharp decline in revenue has consequently led to delays in public salary payments, fueling dissatisfaction towards the incumbent government.

Masisi claims credit for establishing a new agreement with De Beers that could increase Botswana’s share of diamonds over the next decade, yet criticism lingers regarding his failure to diversify the economy adequately. Employment issues further exacerbate the situation, with overall unemployment reaching 27 percent and youth unemployment soaring past 45 percent. The government has refrained from implementing austerity measures, likely in an effort to maintain voter support ahead of the elections.

Despite these concerns, the laws of the electoral system may favor the BDP. Under this system, which awards seats based on winning individual electoral districts, the largest party needs only to secure a plurality in those districts, regardless of the overall percentage of votes received. This disparity poses a challenge for opposition parties, which stand divided in their electoral approach.

Three major presidential candidates represent the opposition: Duma Boko of UDC, Saleshando of BCP, and Mephato Reatile of BPF. Previous elections have seen allegations of fraud, with the UDC filing a complaint to the Supreme Court which was ultimately dismissed. As the election approaches, the Commonwealth plans to send a team of observers to ensure that the process remains transparent. Botswana has established itself as one of Africa's most stable democracies, exhibiting a history of clean elections and no major irregularities.

With about one million of the country's 2.5 million citizens registered to vote, the outcome of this election holds the potential to reshape Botswana's future, making it crucial for the electorate to use their voices wisely amid pressing economic challenges.

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