Brandenburg Elections: A Mixed Bag for AfD as SPD Holds Strong
In a highly anticipated election event outside Potsdam, major figures from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gathered, hopeful for a significant electoral victory. Party leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla were joined by other prominent members, including Björn Höcke and Jörg Urban, the Saxony AfD leader, all eager to see their expectations for a successful showing in Brandenburg realized. However, as the results began to pour in, a different narrative emerged. By 6 PM, projections indicated that the Social Democratic Party (SPD) was leading decisively over the AfD, which was projected to secure less than 30 percent of the votes.
Despite being notified of the disappointing results, lead candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt attempted to maintain an optimistic outlook for his party, declaring, "Whether they are winners or not, they are definitely winners." Outside, a group of young AfD supporters expressed their enthusiasm through rapping, chanting, "We will deport them all," although the mood did not inspire much celebration.
While the AfD had indeed made gains compared to the previous election, falling short of its aspirations to become the dominant political force in Brandenburg was disappointing. The SPD, led by its popular Minister-President Dietmar Woidke, had previously shown signs of regaining momentum in the weeks leading up to the election, managing to close the gap with the AfD just before the vote based on recent polling.
As the night unfolded, it became clear that despite the party's incremental gains—up from 23.5 percent in the 2019 election—the AfD still trailed their party allies in Thuringia and Saxony, who garnered 32.8 percent and 30.6 percent respectively. In Thuringia, the AfD had even secured more than a third of parliamentary seats, giving them significant influence, including a say in judicial elections.
The atmosphere among AfD leaders was mixed; Chrupalla highlighted the party's recent successes as evidence of the unity within the ranks following the departure of former leader Jörg Meuthen in early 2022. This transition, they suggest, has fostered a more cohesive and positive environment within the party. However, the departure of several moderate members, either through resignation or being sidelined, casts a shadow on their narrative of growing strength.
Despite the results, it seems unlikely that the AfD will find opportunities for alliances within the Brandenburg state parliament, particularly after ruling out any collaboration with factions like the newly formed alliance with Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW earlier this year. Should the AfD have emerged as the strongest party, Berndt expressed intentions to invite all state parliament parties to discussions, attempt to legitimize their claim to power.
In strategizing for future elections, the AfD is set to double down on its most prominent issue: immigration. State leader René Springer has publicly called for the repatriation of millions of foreigners, indicating a fierce focus on capitalizing on public discontent regarding increased immigration rates under the current federal administration. In stark contrast, Woidke has taken a more balanced stance, asserting the importance of immigrants in filling critical labor shortages in Brandenburg while emphasizing the necessity of protecting EU borders and combating human trafficking.
Among the measures introduced in Brandenburg to manage refugee issues is a payment card limiting cash payments to reduce financial support for smugglers, alongside efforts to coordinate deportations more effectively. Woidke maintains that the state's asylum policies must strike a balance between compassion and pragmatism, acknowledging that growing concerns surrounding immigration significantly impact residents’ perceptions and experiences in the region. The outcomes of the Brandenburg elections reveal tensions between the rising far-right rhetoric of the AfD and the SPD’s strategies aimed at addressing community anxieties about immigration and governance.
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