Brazil's Municipal Elections: A Critical Test for Lula's Government Ahead of 2026
On Sunday, Brazil conducted municipal elections to choose mayors and councilors in over 5,000 cities. Initial results indicate strong performances for the Liberal Party (PL), the political faction of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. This election was covered extensively by international media, viewed as pivotal for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration and a precursor to the presidential elections scheduled for 2026.
Brazilian electoral regulations dictate that in municipalities with fewer than 200,000 voters, a simple majority suffices for a candidate to win in the first round. In more populous areas, if no candidate secures an absolute majority, a runoff is necessitated between the top two contenders, set to occur on October 27. Attention was centered on 103 municipalities with populations exceeding 200,000, encompassing nearly 40% of the total electorate, which amounts to 156 million people, particularly the 26 state capitals.
According to preliminary findings, Bolsonaro's PL has successfully elected mayors in two state capitals—Rio Branco and Maceió—and will field candidates in the runoff for nine of the fifteen capitals involved in the second round. The Workers' Party (PT), led by Lula, advanced to the runoff in only four capitals, indicating a significant shift in local political dynamics.
In Rio de Janeiro, a critical political hub, centrist Eduardo Paes from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), who is supported by Lula, was reelected for a fourth term with over 60% of the votes during the first round, while Bolsonaro's candidate Alexander Ramagem trailed with nearly 31%, surpassing earlier poll predictions.
In São Paulo, outgoing mayor Ricardo Nunes, aligned with Bolsonaro, took the lead by securing 29.5% of the votes. He will compete in the runoff against Guilherme Boulos, a Lula supporter, who garnered 29.1%. Pablo Marçal, an up-and-coming far-right influencer, finished third with a radical rise in popularity attributed to his provocative social media engagement and polemical campaign style, showcasing the influence of online discourse in modern electoral races. Notably, Marçal faced an incident during a debate, where a rival candidate physically confronted him about false claims, underscoring the heated atmosphere of the campaign.
In Belo Horizonte, Bruno Engler from Bolsonaro's PL emerged first and will proceed to a runoff against a centrist challenger.
Political scientists such as André Rosa from the University of Brasilia have noted that Bolsonaro's political base appears to be significantly stronger than Lula's PT, which continues to grapple with repercussions from its failure to secure victories across any of the 26 capitals in the previous 2020 municipal elections. To navigate these current elections and bolster his support, Lula has opted to align with various progressive and moderate forces, which has arguably diluted the prominence of the PT in the political arena.
Mayra Goulart, a political analyst at the University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), stated that these elections carry great significance for the upcoming presidential race, as securing the backing of locally elected leaders is vital for connecting with the electorate. However, uncertainties loom over Lula's potential candidacy in 2026, while Bolsonaro remains ineligible to run until 2030, following a Supreme Electoral Court ruling in June 2023, which declared him guilty of violations that included abuse of power and misinformation.
Lula's chances of influencing the municipal election landscape could hinge on the outcome in São Paulo, where Boulos's potential victory in the runoff could change the narrative for the PT—but that will require investment and strategic campaigning resources, according to Rosa. Potentially complicating matters, Nunes may benefit from vote transfers from Marçal, who has attracted a segment of Bolsonaro's voter base.
This year's campaign has seen heightened tension and violence. The nation has witnessed the killing of three councilor candidates, with numerous others reporting intimidation and assaults. In light of the elections spanning 5,500 cities, over 23,000 military personnel were deployed to maintain order and ensure voter safety.
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