Bulgaria's Political Turmoil: A Dim Hope for Change as Elections Approach
Bulgarians are set to cast their votes on Sunday, October 27, in what marks the seventh election in just over three years, amidst ongoing political strife that has emboldened the nation’s far-right factions. As the poorest member state of the European Union, Bulgaria has been in a political standstill since 2020, following massive anti-corruption protests that resulted in the fall of Boyko Borisov's conservative cabinet. Despite Borisov's GERB party likely leading in the polls with around 26% support, the prospect of forming a stable government remains uncertain.
Voter turnout is projected to be low, raising alarming concerns over electoral fraud. In the previous election, turnout plummeted to a staggering low of just 34%, the worst since the end of communism. In light of the ongoing political deadlock, approximately 60% of Bulgarians express extreme concern about the current state of affairs. Aneliya Ivanova, a 33-year-old IT worker from Sofia, encapsulated the sentiments of many voters as she stated, "We’re fed up, that’s for sure. We’re tired of being stuck in a carousel that goes round and round, and every time it’s the same result."
The unprecedented political turmoil has inadvertently bolstered the ultranationalist Vazrazhdane party, currently polling between 13-14%, putting it in contention with the liberal reformist PPDB coalition, which has seen diminishing support. Vazrazhdane has garnered attention through its proposal for a law banning LGBTQ propaganda, reminiscent of legislation in Russia, highlighting a significant segment of Bulgarian society that remains pro-Russian despite Bulgaria’s NATO membership.
The increasing influence of Vazrazhdane positions it as a potential coalition partner for GERB. Interestingly, GERB supported the controversial anti-LGBTQ law, which has set the stage for a closer alliance with Vazrazhdane. Borisov, during his tenure as prime minister, navigated complex geopolitical dynamics to maintain relationships with both Moscow and Ankara while aligning with the EU and NATO; however, the specter of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has steered his allegiances more towards the West.
As attention turns to the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5, analysts warn that a potential victory for Donald Trump could shift the political landscape in Bulgaria. Trump’s lenient stance on corruption might encourage GERB to form a minority government dependent on the support of former tycoon Delyan Peevski, who still faces U.S. and British sanctions. Peevski’s breakaway faction from the Turkish minority MRF party is projected to capture at least 7% of the vote.
The specter of electoral fraud looms large, with opposition voices raising concerns about the integrity of the voting process. Many citizens, like retiree Georgy Hristov, express a flicker of hope in the possibility of establishing a government that can at least stabilize the situation, even as they face disillusionment about the efficacy of their vote.
Amid this prolonged political instability, essential anti-corruption reforms and the country’s energy transition have stagnated, putting at risk crucial European funding. Bulgaria’s aspirations to join the eurozone and gain access to the Schengen area have further receded from view.
The financial burden of conducting seven elections has been significant, costing nearly 400 million euros. As Bulgaria prepares for yet another vote, the citizens hope for change but remain doubtful about the potential for meaningful progress in the future.
Related Sources: