Catalonia's Independence Debate: Survey Reveals Division Among Citizens
A recent barometer conducted by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) of the Generalitat has revealed a significant division among Catalans regarding the issue of independence. According to the survey, which involved interviews with 2,000 individuals aged 18 and older between October 11 and November 14 of this year, 54% of respondents oppose the independence of Catalonia. This sentiment is 14 points higher than those who support independence, a figure that remains stable at 40%, unchanged since a similar survey conducted in June 2022.
Joan Rodríguez, director of the CEO, elaborated during a press conference that the data indicates a gradual decline in the support for independence, suggesting that it may be reaching a low point. The survey further reveals that 34% of Catalans prefer the region to remain an autonomous community within Spain, while 30% advocate for an independent state. Interestingly, within the independence-supporting demographic, 23% express a preference for a federal state or continued autonomy within Spain.
The survey's findings indicate that nearly 80% of Catalans have not altered their stance on independence, with 77% maintaining their previous views. Among those who have changed their opinions, 46% did so after 2017, while 38% shifted their views even earlier.
In the political landscape, the survey predicts that the PSC (Catalan Socialist Party) would lead in the upcoming Catalan elections, potentially securing between 39 and 42 seats. This is followed by Junts (Together for Catalonia) with an estimated 30 to 32 seats, and ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) projected to win 20 to 21 seats. The ranking continues with PP (People's Party) expected to acquire 15 to 16 deputies, while Vox is likely to win between 10 and 11 seats. The Comuns are expected to receive 6 to 7 seats, and the CUP (Candidacy of Popular Unity) is projected to gain 5 to 6 seats; Aliança Catalana might also secure 6 to 7 deputies.
When it comes to the approach that political parties should take to defend the interests of Catalans, the survey indicates that 85% of respondents favor prioritizing negotiation and dialogue. In contrast, 51% support exerting maximum pressure. There is a notable divergence in these preferences across party lines: 91% of CUP supporters, 89% of Junts supporters, and 88% of Aliança Catalana supporters advocate for a pressure strategy. Conversely, a higher rejection of such tactics is seen among PSC (60%), PP (64%), and Vox (69%) supporters.
The push for parliamentary stability is also a topic of interest in the study, with 54% of Catalans favoring this stability, even if it requires concessions to party programs. On the other hand, 37% prioritize defending the integrity of the electoral program, reflecting the ongoing tension between collaboration and adherence to political promises within Catalonia's complex political landscape.
Finally, the survey underscores the enduring complexities and divisions regarding Catalonia's independence. As Catalans grapple with their identity and future, the persistent call for negotiation appears to indicate a desire among the majority for a resolution that respects both their autonomy and their ties to Spain.
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