Catalonia's Political Landscape: PSC Maintains Lead in Latest Barometer
According to the latest survey conducted by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO) of the Generalitat, the PSC (Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya) led by current President Salvador Illa would once again secure victory in upcoming elections. The survey indicates that the PSC could gain between 41 and 43 seats, maintaining a healthy margin over its competitors.
In a shift in parliamentary dynamics, Junts is projected to fall to 27 or 29 seats as the rise of the far-right Aliança Catalana takes hold. Following Junts, ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya) is forecasted to obtain between 21 and 23 seats. Meanwhile, the People's Party is estimated to secure between 14 and 16 seats.
The survey also highlights a significant increase for both far-right parties, with Vox expected to earn between 10 and 12 seats, and Aliança Catalana making impressive gains to achieve between 8 and 10 deputies.
In hypothetical general elections, the PSC again leads with predictions of securing 19 to 21 deputies. ERC would follow with 7 to 8, while Junts is estimated to gather between 6 and 8 seats.
A pressing concern among voters, the survey identifies access to housing as the top issue, with 23% of participants voicing it as their primary concern—substantially ahead of other issues like immigration and dissatisfaction with politics, which both stand at 10%. Voters from various parties, including PSC, CUP, Junts, ERC, and Comuns Sumar, share concerns over housing, whereas those inclined towards Vox, Aliança Catalana, and the People's Party seem more focused on immigration issues.
The study also notes a generational shift in information consumption. For individuals aged 18 to 49, social media platforms, particularly YouTube and Instagram, have become the primary sources of news. Conversely, those aged 50 to 64 still rely predominantly on television for updates.
This data is derived from the third wave of the Political Opinion Barometer of 2025, which gathered insights from a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 18 and older. Conducted between February 14 and March 14, the survey reports a margin of error of +/- 2.19% and was presented by CEO director Juan Rodríguez on Thursday.
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