Cautious Optimism in Kyiv: New US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Shows Promise
There is cautious optimism in Kyiv following the signing of the long-discussed minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, which appears to offer more favorable terms for Ukraine than many had anticipated. Although some details remain to be finalized in a subsequent technical agreement, analysts note that Kyiv has secured significant concessions amid Donald Trump's previous claims that Ukraine lacked bargaining power.
Despite intense pressure, Ukraine held firm during negotiations. "Every overreaching demand from the other side was dropped. The final deal looks fair," stated Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, on X. The agreement allows Ukraine to maintain full control over its subsoil infrastructure and natural resources, a key demand from Ukrainian officials.
Notably, the final text does not include the requirement that Ukraine repay prior military assistance, a stipulation that Trump had pushed for on multiple occasions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously refused to sign any agreement that would burden future generations of Ukrainians with repayment obligations. In a positive twist, future military assistance is categorized as investments rather than aid.
The signed agreement clarifies that its terms will not obstruct Ukraine's potential future integration with the European Union or expose Ukraine to US legal jurisdiction. It refrains from committing Ukraine exclusively to future partnerships with the US, ensuring that access to bidding processes will be offered to US companies under fair terms. "There's no requirement to sell everything to the US or to channel all investment through the fund. The obligation is to give the fund fair market access to future projects," Mylovanov elaborated.
The origins of this minerals deal trace back to a strategy conceived by Zelenskyy's team as part of a broader victory plan leading up to the US elections last year. The intent was to capture Trump's interest in an economic partnership, especially considering the uncertainties about his stance on Ukraine compared to the Biden administration.
However, the approach initially appeared to backfire when, shortly after taking office, Trump dispatched US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kyiv with a draft agreement perceived by some as heavily skewed in favor of the US, imposing numerous obligations on Ukraine while offering minimal security guarantees.
Since then, various adjustments have been made to the terms of the deal. In late February, Zelenskyy was anticipated to sign the document during a Washington meeting, but an unfortunate disagreement with Vice President JD Vance led to him leaving the White House without finalizing the deal.
Earlier this month, reports indicated that the Ukrainian justice ministry has engaged the US law firm Hogan Lovells for guidance on the agreement, as required by the US Foreign Agents Registration Act.
While the deal must still pass through the Ukrainian parliament and discussions over the technical agreement are set to continue, experts indicate that its immediate impact may be limited, especially as the conflict with Russia persists. Nonetheless, the Zelenskyy administration holds out hope that securing this deal will enhance goodwill towards Kyiv in the Trump administration, even as Trump has characterized Zelenskyy as a major obstacle to peace negotiations.
Following the deal's signing, Bessent described it as the beginning of a historic economic partnership, emphasizing the US's commitment to Ukraine as an ally. He added that the agreement sends a clear signal to Russia that the Trump administration is dedicated to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.
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