CDU/CSU Emerges as Top Vote-Getter in German Election Amid Far-Right Surge
In a stunning political shake-up, the conservative opposition party CDU/CSU has reportedly secured the highest number of votes in Germany's recent general election, according to exit polls. This outcome, however, is complicated by a significant rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which could hinder the formation of a stable coalition government needed to address new global challenges.
Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU candidate, appears best positioned to take on the role of Chancellor, having garnered approximately 29% of the vote with high voter turnout. Meanwhile, the AfD, capitalizing on public discontent regarding immigration, rising crime rates, and soaring energy prices, has secured around 20% of the vote—an impressive increase compared to its results in the last election of 2021.
"This is a historic success for us, our best result ever," declared Alice Weidel, the AfD’s chancellor candidate, in a jubilant statement to ARD broadcaster. "We extend our hand to offer cooperation with the CDU. Otherwise, change won't be possible in Germany."
Despite these overtures, centrist parties have reaffirmed their intention to maintain a barrier against any formal association with the AfD which is known for its anti-migrant, pro-Kremlin stance. This sentiment was echoed by major political figures, including the incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats, whose party reportedly suffered its worst electoral performance since World War II, securing only about 16% of the vote.
The election also served as a repudiation of Scholz’s junior coalition partners, particularly the Greens, who saw a slight decline to 13.5%, and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), which risked falling below the threshold for parliamentary representation. Compounding the challenges, the far-left Linke party managed to secure over 8%, showcasing a surprising late-campaign resurgence.
As CDU/CSU has not obtained an outright majority, Merz will need to negotiate alliances to govern, potentially with the Social Democrats or the Greens, aiming to establish a new administration by Easter. Merz, a seasoned corporate lawyer with no prior experience in leading a government, faces an overwhelming agenda as Chancellor, having long aspired to this role.
Germany's new leadership will be tasked with revitalizing a faltering economy, mending transatlantic relations strained under former President Trump's tenure, and navigating support for Ukraine amidst increasing geopolitical tensions in Europe.
Analysts noted that the overall tone of the campaign was unusually somber, largely overshadowed by the AfD's ascendancy, which kept discussions centered on immigration and mitigating urgent issues such as rising housing costs and climate change. The AfD's Weidel has used a series of violent incidents involving immigrant suspects to advocate for radical shifts in Germany’s border policies, including proposals for mass deportations.
A recent incident further fueled the debate: a Spanish tourist was stabbed at Berlin's Holocaust memorial, allegedly by a 19-year-old Syrian refugee, an attack that has heightened calls from the AfD for stricter immigration controls.
Political scientist Aiko Wagner from Berlin's Free University highlighted the complex challenges the new government faces, needing to establish policies that align with German law and do not conflict with EU regulations—all while striving to curtail the AfD's influence.
With the AfD poised to become the largest opposition party, despite being monitored by security agencies as a suspected extremist entity, its radical evolution over the past 12 years has become a cause for concern. This was evident when Weidel declined to condemn remarks by one of the party's founders who made light of the Nazi period's historical impact.
Former U.S. Vice President JD Vance's comments labeling the existing opposition against the AfD as undemocratic further complicated the landscape, provoking backlash from Merz, who committed to excluding the far right from his government.
To address the economic challenges ahead, Merz proposed reviving the German economy—currently the world’s third largest—by reducing corporate taxes and considering reforms to the strict debt limitations on federal borrowing. Nevertheless, any such policy measures will require consensus among coalition partners during what are anticipated to be lengthy negotiations.
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