Ceasefire Agreement Between Israel and Hezbollah: What Lies Ahead?
At 4 am local time, which translates to 3 am in Italy, a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese political and military group Hezbollah has officially commenced. This agreement was mediated by the United States and France and was announced by the Israeli government on Tuesday evening. However, the Israeli army has cautioned displaced Lebanese citizens, who have been fleeing due to ongoing Israeli attacks, against returning to their homes too soon. According to a statement from the Arab spokesperson for the Israeli army, Avichay Adraee, it is prohibited for Lebanese residents to approach the towns that had previously been designated for evacuation, or to venture toward areas where Israeli military presence exists.
Despite these warnings, in the early hours following the announcement of the ceasefire, many Lebanese individuals began to make their way back to cities in southern Lebanon, particularly Tyre, which has faced some of the most significant effects of the Israeli attacks. Pictures captured during this moment showed displaced families loaded with belongings, attempting to return to their devastated homes.
The agreement stipulates a 60-day ceasefire, during which the Israeli army is expected to withdraw from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah is mandated to reposition its forces north of the Litani River, also known as Leontes. This maneuver is intended to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon that would be overseen by the regular Lebanese army instead of Hezbollah forces.
Yet, skepticism surrounds the robustness of this agreement. The capacity of the Lebanese government to exercise control over Hezbollah, particularly in the area south of the Litani River, remains uncertain. The Israeli government has also signaled a willingness to resume military action if it perceives any attempts by Hezbollah to rearm during the ceasefire.
This ceasefire is anticipated to temporarily halt the most intense wave of Israeli military operations in Lebanon, a period that has intensified since late September. Israel initiated these operations citing a need to secure its northern border and dismantle Hezbollah's operational presence in the region.
While the hope for peace and stability hangs in the balance with this ceasefire, the underlying complexities of the situation raise questions about its longevity. The international community is closely monitoring developments as both sides navigate the fragile agreement against the backdrop of a historically tumultuous relationship. As the situation unfolds, the risks of escalation and the potential for renewed conflict remain ever-present.
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