Ceasefire or Deception? The Ongoing Crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
On February 3, a coalition of militias led by the M23 group announced a unilateral ceasefire and suspended hostilities against the Congolese army in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). However, the reality on the ground remains murky, with reports indicating that clashes are persisting in various regions of the eastern DRC. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating day by day. Following the rebels' recent advance into Goma, there was a momentary calm in the city, but dire humanitarian conditions are prevalent.
The World Health Organization has reported the recovery of at least 900 civilian bodies, marking the devastating toll of the clashes supported by neighboring Rwanda against the Congolese army, with nearly 3,000 injured. In contrast, the Ministry of the Interior estimates that the death toll may reach as high as 2,000. Hospitals are grappling with severe shortages of medicines, medical supplies, and diesel for generators, leaving them barely operational due to prolonged power outages. Morgues are overwhelmed, forcing many bodies to be buried in mass graves to curb the spread of disease.
Goma's airport, which halted operations following the rebels' entry, remains closed—complicating the delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid. Additionally, nearly all camps for displaced persons have been annihilated and emptied due to ongoing clashes. Those who could flee have escaped, but many remain stranded on the streets, with insufficient resources for shelter. Among the displaced are unaccompanied minors, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities.
Shops in various neighborhoods are beginning to reopen, with owners returning to assess damage inflicted by the fighting and looting. Yet, community leaders, such as Bishop Ngumbi Ngengele from Goma, emphasize that, despite the seemingly calmer environment, many residents still feel unsafe venturing outside their homes. Schools and universities remain shuttered, and internet connectivity is not fully restored. While some water distribution systems have resumed, many residents are forced to draw water from Lake Kivu, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases, including cholera.
Adding to these woes, the risk of outbreaks of diseases such as mpox rises due to the lack of safe water and individuals who had been isolated prior to the rebels' capture of the city now mingling in crowded shelters. Worryingly, there have been multiple reports of sexual violence being weaponized in this conflict, with women disproportionately affected.
Reports from the UN indicate that on February 27, rebels captured Munzenze Prison, releasing thousands of male detainees. Tragically, the rebels invaded the women's section, leading to multiple rapes, and subsequently set the facility ablaze—resulting in numerous fatalities. The UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, highlighted further instances of violence against women committed along the rebels' path to the Kivu South region after entering Goma.
A lack of medical professionals and necessary supplies complicates the provision of care for victims of gender-based violence, hindering support systems that could address physical and psychological trauma. In light of these developments, President Felix Tshisekedi has accused the rebels of falsely declaring a ceasefire and has renewed calls for them to abandon Goma.
Communications from the rebels have been inconsistent; shortly after entering Goma, an M23 leader indicated plans to advance towards the capital, Kinshasa, raising concerns about their true intentions. A spokesperson later contradicted that statement, asserting that their focus was merely on maintaining positions rather than further expansion into other regions like Buvaku.
Citing anonymous sources, Reuters reported that M23 rebels have since taken control of Nyabibwe in Kivu South, despite the ceasefire declaration. Further complicating the situation, multiple accounts suggest the presence of Rwandan army soldiers in Goma, alleged by Western governments and humanitarian organizations to be providing support to M23—denials from Rwanda continue.
In the coming days, a pivotal meeting is set to take place in Tanzania with key regional leaders, including Rwandan President Paul Kagame. However, Tshisekedi's attendance remains uncertain, having missed the previous week’s session. As uncertainty looms over the intentions of the M23 militia and the overarching humanitarian crisis deepens, the people of the Democratic Republic of the Congo continue to endure severe consequences amidst the conflict.
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