Chile Awaits Decision: Jara vs Kast in Presidential Runoff

On Sunday, nearly 16 million Chileans will cast their votes to elect the next president, who will take office in March 2026, succeeding Gabriel Boric. The runoff pits two ideologically divergent candidates against each other: the communist Jeanette Jara and the far-right leader José Antonio Kast, who is favored in the polls. Kast previously ran for president four years ago but lost to Boric in the runoff. He has a controversial background; his father was a member of the Nazi party in Germany, while his brother served as a minister and central bank director during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. In contrast, Jara has served as the Labor Minister and represents continuity with the largely unpopular outgoing government. Her affiliation with the Communist Party remains a sensitive issue within Chilean politics. Interestingly, polls indicate that Jara's recent controversies carry more weight among voters than Kast's revisionist views about the dictatorship. It's crucial to note that polling predictions in previous rounds have had inconsistencies. In the first round, many underestimated populist candidate Franco Parisi, who captured nearly 20% of the vote. Additionally, Chile's mandatory voting laws, which impose fines for non-participation, bring many apathetic voters to the polls, adding to the unpredictability of the election. If Kast were to lose, it would come as a significant surprise; he secured 24% of the votes in the first round against Jara's 27%, but is likely to attract support from two other right-wing candidates, Evelyn Matthei (12%) and Johannes Kaiser (14%). The political landscape has shifted markedly since Kast's last bid, with current debates focusing more on issues of security, crime, immigration, and economic development, diverging from previous discussions around minority rights and healthcare. Kast has deliberately avoided discussing some of his less popular positions on abortion, same-sex marriage, and amnesty for those involved in crimes during the dictatorship. Following previous campaigns, these points contributed to mobilizations against him that enhanced Boric's support in 2021. Patricio Fernández points out in El País that since 2010, elections in Chile have often resulted in a reactionary choice rather than a proactive one. Voters have consistently reacted against the outgoing government, further emphasizing dissatisfaction in the political system. This trend, known as the "Chilean pendulum," indicates a tendency across nearly two decades where presidential elections have been won by candidates opposing the outgoing leader, whether from the left or the right. The prevailing sentiment often leans towards rejecting Boric's leftist government, which, despite a wave of optimism when he took office due to his youth and ambition, has seen many expectations unmet. Jara has championed her government’s accomplishments, such as pension reforms and reduced working hours, while disputing the narrative of a dire economic or security landscape; however, the negative perception among voters, especially concerning crime rates, remains significant. Although Chile is still one of Latin America's safer countries, the escalation of transnational crime has instilled fear and concern among the populace. Kast leads the Republican Party and has set his sights on radical reforms, proposing aggressive measures like the immediate expulsion of over 300,000 undocumented immigrants, a new prison construction program, and broader powers for law enforcement. Economically, he endorses a liberal model with tax cuts and reduced public spending prioritizing private enterprise. In media circles and among leftist politicians, there is concern that Kast would be the first president in Chile's history to have openly voted in favor of Pinochet's dictatorship continuation during the 1988 referendum. Previously, he acknowledged his ties to that era, even suggesting he would vote for Pinochet if he were alive. Nonetheless, in recent months, Kast has distanced himself from this narrative, focusing instead on building alliances with other right-wing leaders globally, including Italy's Giorgia Meloni. If polls turn out to be accurate and Kast emerges victorious, he will face the challenge of governing in a parliament with a closely divided lineup, with significant representation from both the right and left. Recent elections aligned with the presidential ticket have led to a stalemate in the Senate and complex dynamics in the Chamber of Deputies, necessitating Kast to garner support from moderate right factions, like those in Chile Vamos. Kast has outlined his agenda for the early months of his presidency, titled 'Desafío 90' (Challenge 90), indicating his readiness to implement swift reforms within his first 90 days, particularly in areas where he could legislate by decree—reflecting strategies employed by leaders like Donald Trump in the United States and Argentina’s Javier Milei. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2