Climate Change Turns Up the Heat: Wildfires Ravage Spain and Portugal

Recent analysis suggests that the extreme weather that unleashed unprecedented wildfires across Spain and Portugal last month was made 40 times more likely by climate change. The catastrophic fires, which consumed 500,000 hectares (12 million acres) of the Iberian Peninsula in just weeks, were also found to be 30% more intense than what scientists would have predicted in a world without the impact of climate change, according to researchers from the World Weather Attribution network. Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, remarked on the astonishing scale of these fires, stating, "Hotter, drier, and more flammable conditions are becoming more severe with climate change and are giving rise to fires of unprecedented intensity." The researchers revealed a striking contrast: such extreme conditions could have occurred only once every 500 years in a preindustrial climate, but are now expected every 15 years due to warming from heat-trapping pollutants associated with burning fossil fuels. Moreover, the extreme heat registered during this recent event was found to occur once every 2,500 years prior to industrialization, but is now expected every 13 years. This study, which has yet to undergo peer review, relies on observed weather data rather than the climate models typically used by the group after significant weather events. Notably, a prior analysis of wildfires in Turkey and Greece published last week determined that climate change had made those extreme conditions ten times more likely. The rising risk of these infernos is further exacerbated by changes in land use. Hot Mediterranean nations like Spain and Portugal have been grappling with the consequences of rural abandonment and aging populations, as young people migrate to urban areas, leaving behind unmanaged farmland. This overgrown vegetation becomes highly susceptible to fires. David Garcia, an applied mathematician at the University of Alicante, emphasized the public discourse has predominantly focused on declining rural activities leading to increased vegetation. However, he pointed out that the impact of climate change on these fires, which has been substantial, receives considerably less attention. In response to the escalating situation, Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish Prime Minister, recently announced a 10-point climate plan aimed at mitigating the effects of increasingly extreme weather conditions. In an interview with the Guardian, Sánchez expressed concern that climate action is being jeopardized by mainstream right-wing parties that tend to echo narratives from the far right. He articulated, "The problem that we are now facing is that there are traditional right-wing parties that perhaps don’t deny the scientific reality, but act and behave as if climate change doesn’t exist. And this is the biggest problem." As the region battles the dire consequences of these wildfires, the link between climate change and extreme weather becomes increasingly undeniable, underscoring the urgent need for robust climate action and public acknowledgment of the crisis at hand. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2