COP30 in Belém: A Crucial Crossroads for Fossil Fuel Elimination

As COP30 unfolds in Belém, Brazil, one of the key political objectives is the establishment of a roadmap aimed at the gradual elimination of fossil fuels. This goal sees the backing of dozens of countries, particularly from Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Yet, opposition is formidable, as influential oil and natural gas-producing states mount considerable resistance. The conference, which officially concludes on Friday, is expected to extend negotiations into the weekend as delegates work tirelessly to reach consensus. Although the resolutions reached at these COP meetings are not binding, they represent crucial opportunities to shape a unified global strategy to combat climate change, building upon the commitments made in the Paris Agreement of 2015. The primary aim remains to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, and not to surpass 2 degrees—a target scientists argue is increasingly elusive. The path toward achieving these ambitious goals is widely believed to necessitate a transition away from fossil fuels, the leading contributors to carbon emissions and global warming. At COP28 in Dubai two years ago, representatives from around 200 countries acknowledged the need to phase out fossil fuels and commit to net-zero emissions by 2050. This groundbreaking agreement was significant not only due to its inclusion of fossil fuels—previously avoided by many oil-dependent nations—but also considering its adoption in the UAE, a major oil-producing state. That collective resolution, however, stopped short of laying out the specifics for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. This gap in planning was highlighted at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, and has reemerged as a central topic of discussion at COP30. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva has championed the inclusion of fossil fuel phase-out language in the final resolution of COP30, recognizing the political capital he has invested in this conference. Climate activists and civil society organizations have expressed that failing to include a clear roadmap would mark a setback for the conference's aims. However, a leaked draft resolution suggested that Brazil's delegation might withdraw the roadmap due to pressure from various states. Among the dissenters, about 30 countries, including several EU member states like France, Spain, and Germany, along with vulnerable nations in the Pacific and Africa, have threatened not to endorse the final resolution unless it includes this critical roadmap. Meanwhile, countries like Russia and India stand firmly in opposition to any language regarding the fossil fuel phase-out. As discussions evolve, the European Union remains noncommittal on its official stance, while Italy deliberates its position as well. On Monday, Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto Frattin indicated a cautious approach regarding the inclusion of the roadmap, citing a desire for more clarity on its details before making commitments. Notably, the absence of the United States under President Trump also looms large over these negotiations. The method by which decisions are made at COP meetings relies on consensus—a nebulous term that requires compromise among nearly 200 nations with differing levels of economic development, political priorities, and interests. Achieving an agreement, therefore, becomes a daunting challenge. Should the roadmap find its way into the final resolution, this would be only the beginning. The current discussions focus on whether to simply acknowledge the necessity of a roadmap, not necessarily the roadmap itself, which seeks to outline the gradual phase-out process. If agreed upon, members would convene in forthcoming COP meetings, perhaps COP31 or COP32, to collaborate on the detailed execution of the roadmap. As COP30 progresses, the world watches closely, recognizing the critical importance of this moment in shaping the future of global climate policy. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2