Countdown to Election Day: What to Expect When the Votes Are Counted
As millions of Americans head to the polls this November 5, the anticipation is palpable. With early voting already exceeding expectations, a staggering 244 million voters are poised to make their voices heard in an election that promises to shape the future of the White House and potentially the world for the next four years.
The race appears to be incredibly tight between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party. In addition to choosing the next president and vice president, voters will also weigh in on congressional seats, several governorships across 13 states, and a host of local positions.
A pressing question looms as we approach Election Day: how long will it take to determine the winner? Traditionally, results are announced on election night, though historical precedent shows that this isn't always the case. In 2016, the outcome was confirmed at 2:30 AM the following day, after Donald Trump secured the majority in key swing states against Hillary Clinton. Trump won the presidency through the electoral college, deviating from the popular vote — a distinct characteristic of the American electoral process in contrast to many other systems worldwide.
The election of 2000 saw Democratic contender Al Gore concede defeat only after a tumultuous and protracted legal battle surrounding the Florida recount, which concluded with a Supreme Court decision favoring George W. Bush after 36 days. In 2020, Joe Biden's victory took merely four days to confirm, bolstered by crucial votes in Pennsylvania that pushed him past the 270 electoral vote threshold, though final results were only fully certified after ten days.
Trump's reluctance to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and his encouragement of a rally on January 6, 2021, to protest the results, have only heightened concerns about how he might react this election cycle. During a debate with Biden on June 27, Trump suggested he would concede only if the elections were deemed "fair" and "legal," thereby laying the groundwork for any potential contestation of the results.
Given the current political climate, with a poll from CNN indicating that approximately 69% of Americans believe Trump will again refuse to accept the election outcome, the stakes are higher than ever on November 5. The results could diverge in several significant ways:
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If Trump Secures a Clear Majority: Should the polls be upended and Trump claim a clear majority, the results could be swiftly confirmed on the night of November 5, avoiding disputes.
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If Harris Commands a Clear Majority: Conversely, if Harris dramatically outpaces Trump, it could spark immediate allegations of fraud from Republican circles, mirroring contentious narratives from the last election. Early preparations for legal skirmishes are already underway from both parties, anticipating challenges to the legitimacy of the vote.
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If the Results are Tight: The possibility of the election being closely contested, akin to recent elections, may lead to delays in announcing results. Specific protocols regarding the counting of early and mail-in ballots could complicate matters. In 2020, record mail-in voting due to the COVID-19 pandemic saw 64 million ballots cast, significantly prolonging the result announcement due to verification processes that must confirm voter eligibility prior to the counts.
Early tallies may lean more Republican, as results from traditionally Democratic-affiliated mail-in ballots are often counted later. This opens the door for Trump to declare victory prematurely, prior to a complete count potentially favoring Harris.
Beyond the polling booths, the aftermath could escalate into a fierce legal battleground. In the previous election, Trump lodged 61 appeals to contest ballots or procedural changes, winning only one. This year, states must ensure certification by December 12 per federal law outlined in the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act. The electors from each state will officially cast their votes on December 17. The final confirmation will come when Congress convenes on January 6, 2025, to count the Electoral College votes, ultimately crowning the next occupant of the White House.
As the clock ticks down to Election Day, both candidates prepare for the myriad outcomes — each with the potential for monumental political ramifications in the years to follow.
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