Croatia's Presidential Election: Zoran Milanović Leads Amidst Controversy and Short Campaign
Today, Croatian citizens are casting their votes in the first round of the presidential elections, marking a significant moment in what has been described as a 'super election year' for the nation. Eight candidates have registered for the presidency, with current president Zoran Milanović emerging as the frontrunner. Milanović, who has been in office since 2020 and is supported by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) along with several other center-left parties, has shifted his political stance towards more right-wing and populist positions over time.
This election follows two earlier electoral events in 2024 — parliamentary elections in April and European elections in June — both of which saw the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), a center-right party, securing victories. The HDZ has been the dominant political force in Croatia since 2016 but faces challenges from a populace weary of recent scandals involving its officials. Notably, the arrest of the former Minister of Health, Vili Beroš, on corruption charges in November has further tainted the party's image.
Current polling data reflects Milanović's strength, with 39% of respondents expressing support for him. His principal opponent, Dragan Primorac, a physician and former minister representing the HDZ, trails significantly at 24%. Primorac's campaign has been marked by hardline right-wing rhetoric, including a promise to expel all irregular migrants from Croatia, a stance that characterizes him as a weak challenger in this political landscape.
In addition to Milanović and Primorac, two other candidates have shown traction: Ivana Kekin from the progressive Možemo We Can party and Marija Selak Raspudić, an independent conservative politician, with each polling around 10% of potential voters. Kekin and Raspudić’s increased visibility suggests a growing interest in alternative political voices amidst the mainstream candidates.
The presidential campaign, which officially concluded on Friday, stood out for its brevity and the disruptions it faced. Starting on December 11, the campaign was marked by national holidays and a temporary suspension of activities to honor victims of a recent school tragedy in Zagreb. Given the largely ceremonial nature of the Croatian presidency, the campaign devolved into personal attacks among candidates with minimal focus on substantive policy issues.
Analysts suggest the limited powers of the presidency — which include being the head of the armed forces and overseeing foreign affairs — contribute to a lack of meaningful debate on critical issues such as corruption, public health, and judicial matters during the campaign. Political expert Miloš Damnjanović noted that while Milanović has been a very visible figure in Croatian politics, his overall impact has been minimal.
Political scientist Davor Gjenero added that the direct election system for the presidency might not be yielding significant benefits, proposing a reevaluation toward an indirect election model akin to practices in other parliamentary republics like Italy.
Polling stations are set to close at seven this evening, with the State Electoral Commission expected to release initial results by eight. For a candidate to win outright in the first round, an absolute majority is essential. While there is a slight chance Milanović could achieve this, it seems more likely that a face-off between the top two candidates will take place in a second round, potentially scheduled for January 12.
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