Czech Elections: A Potential Shift Towards Populism as Billionaire Babiš Seeks Power

Czechs have commenced voting in a pivotal election that threatens to displace the current centreright government. Recent polls suggest that populist billionaire Andrej Babiš is poised to reclaim power, buoyed by promises to enhance wages, stimulate growth, and curtail aid to Ukraine. This potential shift could bolster populist, anti-immigration factions across Europe and complicate consensus on climate strategies in a nation where no incumbent government has successfully secured a second term since 1996. The Czech Republic has grappled with soaring inflation, following the impacts of the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, leading to one of Europe’s most significant declines in real incomes. Such economic strains have eroded the popularity of Prime Minister Petr Fiala's Spolu coalition and its liberal allies, whose focus has been on reducing the budget deficit. In a last-minute bid to sway voters, Babiš distributed doughnuts in Ostrava, an industrial hub. Babiš, an associate of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in the European Parliament's Patriots for Europe group, has adopted a more ambivalent approach regarding aid to Ukraine. This marks a stark departure from Fiala's administration, which solidly supported Kyiv immediately following the Russian invasion in 2022. Although Czechia has offered less financial aid compared to others, it was among the first to deliver tanks and fighting vehicles and has initiated the Czech initiative, mobilizing traders and defense officials to procure millions of artillery rounds for Ukraine with backing from Western nations. Babiš has criticized the ammunition project, declaring it overpriced, and argues that NATO and the EU should assume responsibility toward Ukraine. ‘We don’t have the money here for our people. Our program is for a better life for Czech citizens. We are not in Ukraine,’ Babiš stated during a debate on CNN Prima News this week. Current polls indicate that Babiš’s ANO party is likely to secure over 30% of the vote, approximately 10 points ahead of Fiala's Spolu coalition. However, even with minor support from allies such as the Motorists party, a parliamentary majority in the 200-seat lower house seems out of reach. The strained relations between ANO and Spolu, coupled with the necessity for backing from anti-EU and anti-NATO fringe parties like the far-right SPD and far-left Stacilo, complicate the prospect of Babiš forming his preferred single-party government. Despite facing allegations of potentially steering the nation towards a departure from the EU or NATO, Babiš has dismissed these claims, denouncing calls for referendums and rebuffing the current administration's assertions that he would lead the country away from its democratic, pro-Western trajectory. At a recent rally near Prague, supporter Martin Klihavec articulated a counterpoint to the fearmongering allegations against Babiš, citing improved personal circumstances under Babiš's prior government. Babiš still faces significant obstacles in his quest to reclaim the premiership, such as adhering to conflict-of-interest regulations due to his ownership of a chemicals and food empire. Additionally, he confronts ongoing legal challenges stemming from trial proceedings over alleged fraud linked to an EU subsidy dating back over 15 years, an accusation he firmly denies. As Czechs head to the polls, Spolu and its allies have the potential to maintain a parliamentary majority if smaller parties struggle to meet the 5% threshold required to enter parliament—a situation that once benefitted them in prior elections, though current predictions suggest such a scenario is unlikely this time. Polling stations will remain open until 10 PM local time (8 PM GMT) on Friday and from 8 AM to 2 PM on Saturday, with preliminary results expected to be announced later that afternoon. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2