Deteriorating Relations: How Modi and Trump's Friendship Deteriorated

On February 13, a promising meeting took place at the White House between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump. Their amiable encounter was marked by Trump's acknowledgment of Modi as a "great friend," and Modi's playful adaptation of Trump's campaign slogan, coining the phrase "Make India Great Again." However, less than six months later, the warmth between the two leaders has significantly waned, signaling a troubling downturn in India-US relations, traditionally characterized by their closeness. Two crucial incidents have catalyzed the deterioration of this diplomatic relationship. First, there’s the issue surrounding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since the conflict began in 2022, India has ramped up its purchases of Russian oil, positioning itself as the second-largest importer after China. This shift in energy sourcing hadn't initially troubled Trump, who during his presidency adopted a conciliatory stance towards Putin while being critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, impatience has brewed within Trump as he faces challenges in US-mediated ceasefire talks due to Putin's opposition. By July 30, Trump had escalated tensions by threatening to impose penalties on India for its Russian oil imports, underscoring a stark warning during a period in which many wish for an end to the violence in Ukraine. While Trump did not clarify how he would penalize India, the mere threat seemed to shift to a more hostile tone. In defiance, Modi affirmed his country would continue purchasing oil from Russia. Additionally, Trump decided to impose a 25% tariff on India, a notable increase compared to the 15% to 20% assessed on other Asian nations. Given that the United States is India's largest export market, such tariffs could be detrimental to India's economy. Despite ongoing negotiations to reduce tariffs—particularly disturbing for India's agricultural sector, which employs over 40% of the workforce—India has struggled to find common ground with the US. The United States is urging India to open its agricultural market to American imports, a proposal Modi has resisted fiercely. This resistance is particularly significant as Modi faced intense domestic protests in 2021, compelling him to withdraw controversial agricultural laws, exposing cracks in his leadership amid mounting challenges. Another incident further strained the rapport between Trump and Modi, this time surrounding conflicts with Pakistan. In May, fierce skirmishes erupted in the disputed Kashmir region, escalating tensions further. The United States intervened, mediating a ceasefire that Trump announced through a post on Truth. While Pakistan commended the US for its mediation efforts, contemplating nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, Modi reacted unfavorably to the American role, minimizing its significance and raising concerns about perceived parity between India and Pakistan fueled by Trump's rhetoric. Moreover, challenges deepened when Trump met with Asim Munir, head of the influential Pakistani army, hinting at an agreement regarding the exploration of Pakistan's hydrocarbon reserves. Trump’s statement, "Who knows, maybe one day Pakistan will sell oil to India," landed as an unwelcome remark for Modi, whose domestic narrative revolves around presenting himself as a strong leader committed to safeguarding India's national interests. Such statements have placed Modi in a complicated position, juxtaposing the historical alliance between the United States and India against the backdrop of India's own regional animosities. The trajectory of India-US relations has shifted remarkably within a matter of months, with diplomacy giving way to tension on multiple fronts. Modi’s efforts to maintain strong nationalistic rhetoric, while at the same time navigating complex international waters, may prove increasingly difficult as both nations grapple with their geopolitical strategies and domestic challenges alike. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2