Diplomatic Hurdles and the Road to Peace: Europe's Crucial Decisions on Ukraine

International diplomacy regarding Ukraine witnessed a significant shift, ending in 2025 with a meeting in Berlin and beginning anew in 2026 with discussions in Paris. In the interim, diplomatic circles suggest much transpired, leading to cautious optimism among European government representatives that the four-year-long conflict may finally find resolution in the coming months. However, diplomats warn that decisive choices lay ahead for Europe, especially regarding security guarantees for Ukraine. These guarantees must ensure support in the event of future Russian aggression, including military assistance if necessary. Ultimately, the question arises: are European governments genuinely prepared to legally commit to intervention in ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, as indicated in Brussels? Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to test the strength of any agreement, according to a seasoned diplomat, necessitating credible security guarantees. The German federal government, in particular, could grapple with domestic political turmoil over these requirements. Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the CDU has shown little inclination to prepare the Bundeswehr for deployment in Ukraine. Public opposition is expected to be substantial, making it uncertain whether the ruling black-red coalition can secure a majority in the Bundestag for a mandate on Ukraine, especially with resistance emerging from the left-wing SPD faction. Amidst this political landscape, Ukraine is urging EU nations to act swiftly. The Ukrainian government and several European countries, including France—whose President Emmanuel Macron convened the recent meeting in Paris—are advocating for prompt action and decisive signals of determination from European leaders. Their assessment is that the current conditions for ending the war are somewhat favorable, given that Russia reportedly suffers thousands of military losses weekly and faces economic distress. According to U.S. negotiators in contact with Putin, Moscow may be inclined to come to terms despite public proclamations to the contrary. However, Ukraine recognizes that it cannot maintain the status quo indefinitely. After prolonged negotiations, the U.S. government has pledged a level of engagement in overseeing and securing a potential peace agreement that European leaders have long sought. Under the current plan developed with the Americans, Europeans, and Ukrainians, the U.S. will play a primary role in monitoring the ceasefire line, ensuring adherence to the peace deal, and identifying any violations. This operation will likely leverage unmanned systems, including sensors and drones, along the extensive front line. Before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy can consider putting a peace agreement—potentially involving significant territorial concessions to Russia—before the voter population, strong security guarantees from Western nations are imperative. According to Brussels, these should be aligned with the NATO treaty's Article 5, affirming collective defense commitments. While Ukraine's frontline defense hinges on its military, with plans to bolster the army to 800,000 soldiers, there are also intentions to station a European-led protection force within the country, supported by the Americans. With the U.S. Congress poised to vote on funding such assistance—regaining political weight that assurances under a previous administration lacked—it is now Europe's turn to step forward. The purpose of the Paris meeting was to solidify Europe’s role in establishing security guarantees as concretely as possible. Diplomats underscore the importance of this signal not only to Ukraine but also to the U.S., which desires assurance that its European allies are ready to uphold their commitments. However, based on previous meetings, there are expectations that Merz, much to the chagrin of more assertive countries like France and the U.K., may shy away from making robust commitments. Nevertheless, Berlin has indicated some readiness to financially support a Ukrainian operation and assist in training and equipping its military forces. That said, further military contributions to protect Ukraine remain a contentious topic that Germany will need to address, according to sources in Brussels. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2