EU-Mercosur Trade Agreement: A New Beginning or an Uphill Battle?
On December 6, history was made in Montevideo as the European Union and Mercosur signed a long-sought free trade agreement, yet tensions within the EU highlight an ongoing struggle. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen celebrated the achievement, marking a significant step towards a tariff-free trade area that spans over 700 million people. Though hailed as a great economic opportunity, particularly for the primary sector, the deal has garnered widespread criticism, particularly from farming communities in Spain, who argue it threatens European family businesses and livestock.
The agreement comes at a time of urgency as geopolitical tensions grow, especially with the anticipated return of Donald Trump and his potential tariffs. The pact is projected to save up to 4 billion euros annually for nearly 60,000 European companies who currently export to South America.
However, while Germany and Spain stand in support of the agreement, other EU members like Italy, Poland, and the Netherlands have expressed strong opposition, led by France's vocal resistance. The path to ratification is fraught with obstacles; it requires not only approval from the European Council and Europarliament but potentially from the national parliaments of each of the 27 member states, further complicating its prospects.
In the European Council, a minimum of 15 countries representing 65% of the population is needed for endorsement. With France’s population alone accounting for nearly 15%, their rejection could significantly impact the agreement’s chances. As discussions continue in the Europarliament, where committees will scrutinize the deal before a final vote, the likelihood of opposition from nationalist parties and left-leaning factions looms large.
The necessity for national parliament approval could introduce further challenges. Some parliaments have already indicated their refusals, showcasing a reality that echoes past events when agreements have faced hurdles at national levels. The 2016 Canada-EU agreement almost faltered due to regional opposition in Belgium, illustrating the complexities of multinational agreements within the EU framework.
Thus, while the EU-Mercosur trade agreement represents a monumental achievement on paper, the road ahead appears to be an uphill battle fraught with political divides and resistance. As negotiations unfold and opposition mounts in various EU chambers, the ultimate fate of this landmark agreement remains uncertain.
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