Europe's Critical Moment: The Choice Between Unity and Division

Europe has been put on notice. President Vladimir Putin has escalated his aggressive war against Ukraine for nearly four years and recently issued threats indicating Russia is prepared for conflict with Europe if necessary. The situation is compounded by the U.S. under President Donald Trump, who has signaled a willingness to abandon Ukraine for a potentially unscrupulous deal with Russia, laying out a new National Security Strategy that suggests fostering resistance against Europe’s current path. The urgent question now is how Europe can rally to empower Ukraine amidst external military aggression and reluctance from the U.S. It is clear that Europe must take action to defend not only Ukraine but also its own future. The past year has been filled with predictions that Trump would eventually take a strong stance against Russia, reminiscent of the endless wait in Beckett's 'Waiting for Godot.' Yet, his proposal of a 28-point peace plan seems to be a blatant attempt to forge a Russian-American imperial bargain at the expense of both Ukraine and Europe. The old rallying cry from Poland rings true now: "Nothing about us without us." This reflects the necessity for Europeans to stand united in supporting Ukraine. Two crucial questions arise: can Europe and like-minded nations, such as Canada, bolster Ukraine sufficiently to weaken Russia? And, will they? The answer to the first question is challenging, but feasible. A potential breakthrough could occur if EU leaders agree to utilize the frozen Russian assets held in Belgium during their upcoming summit. This could significantly alleviate Ukraine's financial struggles over the next two years. Europe’s economy, which is ten times larger than that of Russia, puts it in a strong position to ramp up military production. Additionally, countries, including Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Canada, have recently entered agreements to procure substantial U.S. weaponry for Ukraine, reducing the dependency on U.S. intelligence that could be withdrawn for coercive purposes. On the Ukrainian front, recent domestic turmoil, highlighted by the departure of President Zelensky's right-hand man due to a corruption scandal, presents an opportunity for a fresh start, perhaps through a government of national unity. However, the situation is dire; the front lines are thinning, and there have been nearly 300,000 cases of desertion since the conflict began. While Ukraine faces immense challenges, Russia too grapples with significant issues. Reports indicate that graveyards are being expanded to accommodate at least 250,000 war casualties, and with 750,000 more wounded, their recruitment efforts are struggling despite having a larger population. Economic resilience appears to be faltering, with soaring inflation and declining oil prices impacting their financial stability. European nations could counteract Russian oil revenue by inspecting ships involved in their oil trade. If Europe successfully enhances military and economic support for Ukraine while applying pressure on Russia, a shift could occur in 2026 or 2027. This might lead Russian generals to conclude that the conflict is unwinnable, pushing for a ceasefire. However, winning the war will not be solely dependent on the cessation of fighting. It will also hinge on Ukraine's condition in subsequent years. By 2030, if Russia manages to solidify its grip on occupied territories while Ukraine remains unstable and under Russian influence, it would signify a Russian victory. Conversely, if by 2030 Ukraine is a sovereign nation with a robust economy, democracy, and security, it will have succeeded. Achieving this requires continued commitment from both Ukrainians and Europeans. Europe has the capacity to support its ally — but will it? Several challenges present themselves: lingering beliefs in Russian dominance, reliance on U.S. security, bureaucratic obstacles within the EU, and potential national self-interests complicating collective action. The sluggishness of political processes, as evidenced by internal disputes within Germany, Belgium, and France, could further impede unity. Despite these obstacles, one is left with the optimism of willpower. Europe has the potential to transcend its factionalism and rise to this momentous challenge. The hallmark of historical resilience through existential threats is evident — Britain in 1940, Ukraine in 2022. This begs the question: will Europe rise to meet a significant, yet less acute, challenge today? We possess the will; now, it is time to realize it. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2