Europe's Leadership Crisis: Can Ursula von der Leyen Navigate a Tumultuous Future?
In an ironic twist of fate, Italy, long mocked for its unstable political landscape, now stands as a beacon of stability within the European Union (EU). As leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz grapple with electoral setbacks, and Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez navigates a fractured minority government, EU insiders express deep concern over the current political climate. The challenges they face, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the specter of a possible Trump reelection, suggest a pressing need for robust leadership.
Bas Eickhout, co-leader of the Green group in the European Parliament, lamented the lack of leadership, stating, "I don’t see the leadership. I would not be capable of mentioning one head of state that I would say in a credible way could command that leadership."
As Macron and Scholz struggle with domestic issues, attention has shifted to Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President. Approaching her second term, which begins on December 1, she faces great expectations to govern effectively in a challenging environment. Experts recognize her experience and operational prowess, but her ability to deliver and implement strategies amidst a backdrop of weak national governments remains uncertain.
In her July address to the European Parliament, von der Leyen unveiled a bold agenda, promising a clean industrial deal to foster green jobs, increased defense spending, and renewed efforts to integrate Ukraine and Western Balkan nations into the EU. Nevertheless, without significant action on the economy, warnings abound that the EU risks stagnation. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi highlighted this challenge in a comprehensive report, positing that an investment of up to €800 billion annually is vital for the EU to remain competitive against global powerhouses like the US and China.
While von der Leyen has yet to endorse common borrowing to fund her vision, this decision ultimately lies with the 27 national leaders, many of whom are wary of expanding the EU budget. Germany, in particular, has been hesitant about further common debt, complicating potential collaborative financial initiatives.
Luuk van Middelaar, a former senior EU official, articulated concerns about the disconnect between the ambitious Draghi agenda and the realities of national governance. He remarked, "European national leaders can only spend limited political capital on European initiatives. The stars for that have to be aligned for things to work out, and currently, they are not aligned at all."
This fragmentation is further exacerbated by the rise of far-right parties across the continent, which now hold power or influence in seven EU member states. Despite their growing presence, these parties are often divided when it comes to European integration, which poses additional challenges for future policymaking. As von der Leyen enters her second term, she may face complex trade-offs, particularly between pursuing the EU's green agenda and addressing economic security concerns.
The necessity for a new EU budget before the end of her term could further complicate matters, as existing political dynamics will likely escalate tensions. Budgetary negotiations are notoriously challenging, and the next cycle promises to be no different, especially in light of increased expenditure demands.
Adding to the complexity, EU debt hit €459 billion in 2023, having doubled since 2021 due to the COVID recovery fund. With looming debt repayments beginning in 2027 and no consensus on generating funds for repayment, the EU faces a tumultuous period ahead.
Despite the challenges, many believe that external pressures from climate change impacts and geopolitical threats could ultimately create momentum for the items on von der Leyen's agenda to become national priorities. Heather Grabbe, a prominent voice in European policy discussions, indicated that societal demands for quality jobs, environmental action, and addressing a resurgent Russia could catalyze necessary reforms.
As Europe confronts these myriad challenges, the question remains: can Ursula von der Leyen effectively leverage her position to guide the EU through this tumultuous period, or will the weight of absent leadership from national capitals hinder progress towards a unified and resilient Europe?
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