Europe's Shifting Stance: Implications for Israel Amidst Political Upheaval

In a significant turn of events for Israel, recent political changes in Europe have resulted in a challenging week for the nation. With the fall of Viktor Orbán's government in Hungary, Israel has lost one of its staunchest regional allies. Furthermore, Italy has suspended a critical defense pact with Israel, amplifying fears of new trade sanctions aimed at addressing state-backed settler violence in the occupied West Bank. The potential for sanctions marks a crucial moment for Israel as discussions within the European Union (EU) about reevaluating their relationship with the country gain traction, particularly in response to ongoing conflicts in Gaza and beyond. Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, a director at the Mitvim think tank and lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, emphasized that Hungary’s veto was a significant barrier preventing a package of sanctions against violent settlers, a situation she anticipates will change with the new government in Hungary. Once the new administration is established, it is expected that the EU will push for these sanctions, with many European leaders viewing Prime Minister Netanyahu as 'on the wrong side of history.' EU officials have indicated that sanctions targeting extremist settlers are likely to be revived soon after Hungary's political transition. Discussions will intensify during a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers, where member states sympathetic to Palestinian rights, like Ireland and Spain, are poised to advocate for trade sanctions against Israel. While sanctions geared towards settlers may be largely symbolic—targeting a small group with minimal European ties—the act of passing such measures could embolden calls for broader actions, including potential suspension of various components of the EU-Israel trade agreement. As it stands, the EU remains Israel’s top trading partner and a key source of research funding. Despite this economic connection, there has been a historical failure to translate economic leverage into substantial political influence regarding Israeli policy. The landscape is further complicated by the recent encouragement from over 390 former EU officials to suspend the EU-Israel association agreement. Among the signatories are prominent figures including former EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell and ex-UN weapons inspector Hans Blix. A public petition supporting similar demands has attracted over a million signatories across all 27 EU member states, marking it as one of the fastest-growing petitions of its type. However, suspending the association agreement would necessitate endorsement from influential EU countries, with Germany and Italy being crucial players in the process due to the requirement for a qualified majority. Despite a previous attempt to halt trade provisions in light of humanitarian crises in Gaza, that endeavor failed to garner sufficient support from member states. The political shift in Italy, manifested through the suspension of the defense cooperation deal with Israel, signals a potential readiness within the EU to reassess its relations with Tel Aviv. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, previously a close ally of Israel, now stands amidst a political climate marked by widespread public dissent against Israeli actions, creating a stark contrast to her earlier policies. Lorenzo Castellani, a political historian, notes that public opinion on foreign policy has shifted dramatically in Italy, highlighting the direct geopolitical ramifications of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the suspension of the defense memorandum may lack substantive consequences, it nonetheless serves as a vital warning to Israel. This change reflects how Israel has adeptly leveraged its closest bilateral relationships to mitigate adverse EU resolutions—a strategy described by Sion-Tzidkiyahu as 'divide and thwart.' Political alliances with Israel are increasingly perceived as burdensome by European leaders, particularly given Netanyahu’s affiliations with figures like former U.S. president Donald Trump, whose antagonistic discourse towards Europe has made those connections more controversial. Many Europeans argue that upholding strong actions against Israel is a matter of protecting European values and global rule of law, particularly in light of perceived double standards when compared to sanctions imposed on Russia. Recent conflicts have highlighted the growing discontent among European populations, as increasing numbers of citizens express discomfort with the ongoing support for the Israeli government. For Germany, the historical context surrounding the Holocaust further complicates its political stance towards Israel. While existing leadership, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has shown some openness to criticize Israeli policies, significant shifts within public opinion continue to evolve. Despite these European political dynamics, discussions regarding Israeli foreign relations remain overwhelmingly focused on interactions with the U.S., overshadowing the importance of EU ties. A significant disconnect exists among the Israeli populace, where many perceive the EU as an adversary rather than a partner, demonstrating a lack of awareness of the crucial role European economies play in Israel’s overall prosperity. As Sion-Tzidkiyahu pointed out, understanding this dependency will become increasingly fundamental for Israel as diplomatic relationships evolve. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2