EU's Power Struggle: A State of Uncertainty Ahead of Trump's Return
As Donald Trump positions himself for a comeback in the United States, the European Union finds itself ensnared in a complex political gridlock. All eyes are on Brussels, where leaders agree that the EU must swiftly prepare to navigate its relationship with the new U.S. President. However, five months following the European elections, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remains uncertain about when her new team can officially commence its work. Initially, October 1 was earmarked as the launch date for the new Commission, but this deadline has come and gone. Now, even the proposed November 1 date is in doubt.
The core of the issue lies within the European Parliament, which is embroiled in a power struggle between its left and right factions as it seeks to confirm the commissioners nominated by their respective governments. Tensions escalated when Ursula von der Leyen attempted to mediate discussions among key parliamentary leaders, including Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People's Party (EPP), and Iratxe García Pérez, the chair of the Social Democratic faction.
At the heart of the conflict is a deep divide over the future orientation of European policy. Weber accuses García Pérez of importing the Spanish culture wars into the European Parliament, while she accuses him of collaborating with right-wing extremists, a claim that has defamed Weber personally. This dispute follows a rightward shift in the parliament following the elections held in June. The once-sturdy coalition supporting von der Leyen—composed of the EPP, Social Democrats, and Liberals—now finds its majority precariously slim and desperate for additional backing.
In a strategic maneuver, Manfred Weber has aligned himself with the Green party to bolster support for von der Leyen's reelection. However, he eschews completely binding his policies to the left, opting instead to form temporary alliances with certain right-wing factions. This includes forming majorities with Conservatives and Reformers, such as Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d'Italia party, which has raised eyebrows regarding their potential collaboration in the mainstream political arena.
The process of finalizing von der Leyen's new team was recently put to the test during parliamentary hearings. While there seems to be consensus on the expertise of the candidates—and there are 26 of them—three appointments remain contentious, deadlocked due to ideological confrontations.
The Spanish Socialists are adamant that Raffaele Fitto, hailing from a post-fascist party, cannot be allowed a vice-presidential title. This decision appears to be driven primarily by their own Italian Socialist counterparts. Similarly, Hungarian nominee Olivér Várhelyi is being blocked due to his close ties with Viktor Orbán’s government.
In a counter-move, the EPP is withholding support for the Spanish Socialist Teresa Ribera, who has been earmarked by von der Leyen to serve as another managing Vice-President. Weber demands that Ribera first clarify her handling of a flood disaster incident in Spain before proceeding to a vote on her confirmation. He further asserts that if Ribera does face criminal charges, she must resign immediately from the Commission.
This impasse has raised fundamental questions on how to move forward. The candidates require a two-thirds majority within the relevant parliamentary committee for approval. If this cannot be achieved, a simple majority vote in a secret ballot could suffice. However, García Pérez's proposal for an anonymous vote to confirm Fitto and Várhelyi, despite their extremist affiliations, is staunchly rejected by Weber, who refuses to risk his reputation as a moderate leader.
Time is becoming increasingly crucial; the Commission must be ultimately confirmed by a simple majority during a plenary session. The next opportunity for this vote will not come until the week of November 25, a timeframe that could see significant implications for how the EU addresses the forthcoming Trump administration.
With leaders from the EU planning to meet at the end of December for a critical summit in Brussels, the urgency accelerates. They wish to discuss strategies for confronting the expected shifts in U.S. policy under Trump's leadership. Should the new EU executive fail to take office before this pivotal meeting, it would undoubtedly reflect poorly on the Union's internal cohesion and readiness to engage with external power dynamics.
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