Extremadura Elections Heat Up: Key Players and Strategies as December Vote Approaches

The campaign for the Extremadura elections, slated for December 21, officially kicked off Thursday night, revealing a common consensus among polls: María Guardiola of the Popular Party (PP) is likely to win the regional elections. However, once again, she will need the support of Vox to form a government. The Socialist Party (PSOE) is facing challenges, largely due to the perceived weaknesses of its candidate, Miguel Ángel Gallardo, who is expected to rely on the strong presence of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and other government members at rallies to enhance visibility. As polling indicates a boost for Vox, raising questions about the extent of its influence in negotiations post-election, concerns loom within the ranks of the PP. Sources indicate that they had initially anticipated gaining around 31 to 32 seats, but now believe that securing 30 would be seen as an achievement. Internal surveys reflect optimism for Vox improving its standing from the last election, where it secured five seats; however, projections made by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) of 10 to 12 representatives may turn out to be overly ambitious. The PP suggests these lofty predictions aim to mobilize the left. The strategy for Guardiola is to secure as close to an absolute majority (33 seats) as possible, allowing for a potential investiture with abstention from Vox, which could facilitate a smoother government formation. In stark contrast, Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, has treated these elections with utmost seriousness, conducting a rigorous campaign schedule that includes multiple trips to Extremadura to lead pre-campaign events. His focus will likely center on national issues and pointed criticisms of Guardiola and the PP. Notably, the call for elections came after Vox successfully undermined Guardiola's budget for the upcoming year, leading to her campaign strategy that is heavily focused on local issues and attempts to attract centrist and left-leaning voters. Members of the PP have even noted, "The PSOE is sinking, and vote transfers to us are beneficial." In an effort to bolster his party's presence, PP President Alberto Núñez Feijóo has adopted a parallel caravan approach with Guardiola, ensuring their encounters at major rallies while still maintaining Guardiola as the primary figure in the spotlight. With all eyes on the electoral outcomes, Feijóo has a lot at stake during this election, particularly given Vox's ascendant momentum. Discussions among regional PP leaders suggest that what Abascal decides regarding his entry into a coalition government may play a pivotal role in the election's narrative. Meanwhile, the PSOE is threatened with a repeat of the 2011 scenario, potentially relegating them to the second political force, but this time by a significantly larger margin. Gallardo, plagued by a low-profile media presence and ongoing judicial scrutiny related to corruption allegations against Pedro Sánchez’s brother, struggles to engage with the electorate effectively—an uphill battle made tougher by the national challenges faced by the PSOE. Nevertheless, key figures from the government plan to lend their support in an effort to regain lost ground in the polls. In addition to the campaign’s kickoff, Pedro Sánchez intends to visit Extremadura on two additional occasions for strategic rally events on the 14th in Cáceres and the closing event on the 19th in Villanueva de la Serena in Badajoz. Important ministers such as María Jesús Montero, Félix Bolaños, Pilar Alegría, Isabel Rodríguez, and Extremadura Minister Carlos Cuerpo are also expected to play significant roles in rallying the party’s base ahead of the election. As the campaign progresses, the dynamic among the parties will be closely watched, particularly the interplay of national issues and local voter sentiments, which could ultimately determine the landscape of governance in Extremadura for the next legislative term. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2