France Faces Political Turmoil as Prime Minister Bayrou Moves to Pass 2025 Budget Without Vote
France is bracing for yet another round of political uncertainty as Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to bypass a potential no-confidence motion in the Assemblée Nationale, forcing through the 2025 budget bill without a parliamentary vote. With no clear majority in the lower house, the centrist Bayrou is left with little choice but to invoke Article 493 of France's constitution on Monday, allowing him to push through vital legislation aimed at curbing the nation's growing deficit.
Opposition is mounting, particularly from the hard-left party, La France Insoumise (LFI), which has vowed to file a confidence vote immediately after the budget is passed. Their stance is backed by the Green party (EELV) and the Communist party (PCF). However, the Socialist Party (PS) has yet to clarify its position on the proposed motion, while the far-right National Rally (RN) is in discussions to determine its support, which could lead to the collapse of a second government in less than two months.
This current political impasse stems from President Emmanuel Macron's decision to dissolve parliament and call for a snap general election following defeats in the European elections. The outcome of that election saw the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties including the PS, LFI, PCF, and EELV, winning the largest share of seats, leaving the lower house fragmented among three roughly equal factions – left, center, and far-right – without any party holding an absolute majority. A new legislative election cannot take place until June, prolonging this deadlock.
Just last month, censure motions from both LFI and RN were submitted in response to the previous Prime Minister Michel Barnier's use of Article 493 to advance the 2025 budget. This action ultimately led to his resignation and a collapsed government within a mere three months.
On Monday afternoon, Bayrou is expected to present the contentious budget bill to the lower house following its prior approval by a cross-party committee. Should Bayrou proceed with invoking Article 493, he will ignite a political firestorm; opponents will have a tight 24-hour window to lodge a censure motion, which must be voted on within 48 hours. If the censure succeeds, the proposed budget becomes void, the government will fall, and France will find itself back in a state of political paralysis.
François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, remarked on FranceInfo radio that passing the budget bill is essential to alleviating economic uncertainty. 'To begin to reduce that uncertainty, France needs a budget—one that curtails the deficit,' he said, underscoring the urgency for the government to tighten its grip on public spending.
Should the budget bill clear its legislative hurdles, it is projected to take effect in the latter half of the month, yet the looming threat of political instability remains high, suggesting that France's path to economic stabilization is fraught with challenges.
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