France's Momentous Parliamentary Elections: Rise of the Far-Right National Rally
Voting has commenced in France in what is deemed one of the country's most significant elections in recent memory, with the far-right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen and its allies positioned to emerge as a dominating force in the national assembly. Following a day of political inactivity, mainland France witnessed the initiation of voting at 8 am local time on Sunday, with pollsters expected to release seat projections as the notable big-city polling stations close at 8 pm. Recent polls have displayed a decline in the estimated number of RN deputies in the upcoming parliament, as rival candidates withdrew from three-way runoffs to prevent the fragmentation of the anti-far-right vote. The 'republican front' is anticipated to impede the anti-immigration Eurosceptic party from securing an absolute majority of 289, with a final Ipsos poll suggesting that the RN and its allies could send between 175 and 205 deputies to the 577-seat parliament. Although this scenario would grant the RN a significantly larger parliamentary presence compared to its 88-member group in the current parliament, the number of MPs from President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition is predicted to decrease by half to a maximum of 148. The New Popular Front (NFP), a leftist coalition predominantly led by the radical left Unbowed France (LFI) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is projected to secure between 145 and 175 seats, likely positioning it as the second largest force in the new assembly. Macron, who initiated the snap election less than a month ago subsequent to a defeat to the RN in the European parliamentary election, appears to be headed for the remaining term of his presidency without a distinct ruling majority. The risk of an extreme right-dominated majority is highlighted by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who might oversee a caretaker government while Macron contemplates the next steps, which could include a broad coalition excluding the extremes or potentially a technocratic government. The aftermath of the elections poses a threat of prolonged parliamentary impasse and political ambiguity in France, a key player in the EU, the second-largest economy in the bloc, a crucial NATO member, and a member of the UN Security Council. Le Pen has expressed confidence in the RN's ability to secure an outright majority, urging voters to prevent chaos by providing a clear mandate to govern and potentially making her 28-year-old deputy, Jordan Bardella, the prime minister. The RN, while moderating some stances, persists in its agendas such as reducing immigration, limiting certain state jobs to single nationals, revoking jus soli citizenship, and instituting national preferences in welfare benefits. The surge in support for the far-right party is attributed to public dissatisfaction with Macron's pro-business policies, which have bolstered the economy but left many feeling neglected regarding living costs and deteriorating public services. The electoral campaign has been marred by escalating tensions and numerous violent incidents, with over 50 candidates and campaigners enduring physical assaults, some necessitating hospitalization. The outgoing Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin decried a substantial number of arrests and decried the pervasive violence towards the political sphere. With the summer Olympics around the corner, France braces for potential post-election disturbances, deploying a significant police force to avert unrest, while street demonstrations outside parliament remain prohibited.
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