François Bayrou: The Paradoxical Politician Facing France's Political Crisis
François Bayrou is a walking paradox. For 40 years he has preached reconciliation while leaving behind a trail of rages and splits that some label as betrayals. Bayrou attributes France's ailments to an arrogant political culture that is largely indifferent to matters beyond the Paris Périphérique. His supporters, however, regard him as a consummate statesman, or perhaps one of the last genuine politicians in France.
Born 73 years ago to a poor farming family in the Pyrenees, Bayrou's political journey is unconventional. Unlike many of high office, he did not attend prestigious finishing schools of the elite. Yet, he stands firmly against populism, dismissing the oversimplifications and ideological dogmas from both the Right and the Left. A staunch pro-European, he identifies as an anti-elitist centrist—a rare breed in today's political climate.
Bayrou's moment has seemingly arrived as President Emmanuel Macron appointed him as the sixth Prime Minister, a position previously held by Michel Barnier, who lasted only 90 days before being toppled by the National Assembly. Intriguingly, it appears that Bayrou selected himself for this role; Macron had favored someone else—either Defence Minister Sébastian Lecornu or former Industry Minister Roland Lescure. During a lengthy meeting at the Élysée Palace, Bayrou erupted into one of his characteristic rages, reminding Macron that his own political ascent in 2017 stemmed from the decisions Bayrou had made to step back from the center ground of electoral politics. If not chosen for Prime Minister again, Bayrou threatened to withdraw his party, Le Mouvement Démocrate (Modem), thereby plunging Macron’s presidency into further turmoil.
With these political dynamics at play, what can France expect from a Prime Minister appointed amidst such tensions? Bayrou faces an uphill battle, holding only 36 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly, with expectations low following Barnier’s challenges as Prime Minister. Additionally, Bayrou acknowledges he is facing a ‘Himalaya to climb’ at the age of 73, especially devoid of a parliamentary majority.
Despite these daunting circumstances, Bayrou has three reasons for cautious optimism. First, his overt clash with Macron distinguishes him as an independent-minded Prime Minister rather than simply a presidential puppet. This rift may be fortuitous, as it provides the façade of autonomy in negotiating political matters. Secondly, with Moody's decision to downgrade French debt, there is newfound urgency surrounding issues of deficit and debt, potentially reviving attention on these matters within the political arena—and perhaps compelling Bayrou to take action sooner than expected.
Thirdly, there has been a tentative shift in France’s political landscape since Barnier's demise. The moderate Left, particularly the Socialist Party and possibly the Communists, have indicated a willingness to break away from the confrontational approach typical of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise. While the Socialists have rejected a coalition within Bayrou’s government, they have hinted at a non-aggression pact that would allow for the passage of an amended 2025 budget, albeit at the cost of some concessions, including those regarding immigration laws.
As Prime Minister, Bayrou may have an opportunity to reach across party lines. He might appoint prominent figures from the Left, such as former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and ex-finance minister Pierre Moscovici, to establish a government comprising experienced politicians. Bayrou’s theoretical belief in consensus-building will soon be put to test against the backdrop of political discontent and the urgent tasks ahead.
In his lengthy political career, Bayrou has made lofty promises but often fell short of delivering on them. This time poses a substantial moment in his career—he might succeed in passing the 2025 budget, a task that could prove elusive. However, any compromises made may undermine France's commitment to reducing its budget deficit next year.
Once a budget is established, Bayrou’s real challenges will emerge. Predictions indicate that while François Bayrou, as an insider-outsider, might last longer than Michel Barnier's brief tenure, he may not endure through the tumultuous period leading up to 2025. As the political landscape shifts, one question remains: Is this finally Bayrou’s moment to shine, or has he once again stepped into a quagmire of political contradictions?
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