Fresh Talks on Ukraine: UK Hosting Key Negotiators Amid Uncertain Peace Prospects
David Lammy, the UK Foreign Secretary, is set to host U.S. and European negotiators for discussions regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine this Wednesday. This comes against a backdrop of speculation that Russia has communicated to Washington its willingness to relinquish claims to sections of Ukraine it does not actively control. However, this potential concession could come at a significant price, which might include U.S. acknowledgement of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly stated that he has not been privy to any such proposal from the White House, reinforcing Ukraine's stance that it cannot endorse such claims.
Originally, it was anticipated that Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, would attend the London talks, but on Tuesday, the Department of State announced that he would be unable to participate. Instead, Keith Kellogg, the White House's Ukraine envoy, is expected to represent U.S. interests during the important discussions.
The meetings are occurring amid skepticism in Europe about Russian President Vladimir Putin's commitment to an end to hostilities. This skepticism is fueled by reports during the Easter weekend, where Ukraine reported thousands of violations of a temporary truce that Putin had announced. John Healey, the UK Defence Secretary, informed the Commons that the UK shares Ukraine's doubts regarding Putin's public promises, stating that there was no observable ceasefire along the frontline despite Putin's declaration of a 30-hour pause in fighting.
In his remarks to MPs, Healey confirmed that military intelligence found no proof that any ceasefire had taken effect during the Easter weekend. "While Putin claims to desire peace, the reality is that he has not indicated a willingness to cease military operations," he explained.
Ukrainian sources reported that despite continued attacks over Easter, there was a reduction in drone operations and the use of long-range weapons. As part of the strategic discussions, Healey is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, while Lammy intends to engage with Ukrainian Foreign Secretary Andrii Sybiha and delegations from France and Germany.
Dialogue during the London meetings will aim to explore the shape of a potential ceasefire and long-term peace strategies. Yet, despite ongoing negotiations led by the White House for nearly three months, no significant breakthroughs have been achieved.
European officials are wary that Moscow remains unyielding to a ceasefire, as Putin's goal of exerting control over Ukraine appears unchanged. Russia has insisted that Ukraine surrender full control of four eastern and southern regions that Russian forces only partially occupy. This would include other territories such as Kherson, which was recaptured by Ukraine in November 2022, and Zaporizhzhia city—territories that Ukraine has firmly asserted it cannot surrender.
Reports indicate the Kremlin could be prepared to soften its demands in direct discussions with the U.S., potentially agreeing to a freezing of frontline conflict if the U.S. acknowledges Crimea as part of Russia. Yet, President Zelenskyy has dismissed such notions, emphasizing that Ukraine will not accept the occupation of Crimea under any circumstances, as this stance would be incompatible with Ukraine's constitution.
Zelenskyy highlighted the need for talks to take place within a framework that respects Ukraine's position, implying that discussions shouldn't revert to media speculation but occur directly between Ukraine, the UK, France, and the U.S.
Furthermore, Putin has suggested he is open to direct negotiations with Ukraine, marking the first potential dialogue between the two nations since the spring of 2022. This could involve addressing issues relating to the protection of civilian targets. However, Zelenskyy expressed concerns that Putin may ultimately wish for the U.S. to withdraw its mediation efforts, thereby enabling Russia to pursue its military objectives unfettered.
Zelenskyy reiterated his desire for the United States to maintain its role as a strategic ally in the peace process, asserting, "Russia has always been the historic enemy of America. I believe the U.S. is crucial in leading efforts for a peaceful settlement. We need them to participate and to exert pressure on Russia."
As the London discussions unfold, the U.S. is expected to communicate Ukraine's responses to Putin's overtures. Meanwhile, concerns loom in Ukraine regarding the upcoming visit of Steve Witkoff, a close confidant of former President Donald Trump, to Moscow later this week. Witkoff has engaged in several in-depth discussions with Putin, which has raised alarm in Ukraine about the potential amplification of Russian narratives.
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