Friedrich Merz Faces Major Setback in Quest for German Chancellorship
Germany's presumed next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has encountered a significant failure on his journey to power by failing to secure the necessary majority in the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, to be elected. The ballot held on Tuesday marked a historic first in Germany's postwar era, where a candidate lost the first round of voting in a nation that prizes predictability and stability. Unconfirmed media reports indicate that a second round of voting is scheduled for Friday, with Merz expected to run again.
Commentators have labeled the shocking outcome, in which the center-right leader received 310 votes, falling short of the required 316, as a complete catastrophe for the conservative politician, calling it a "punch to the stomach." The 69-year-old leads the center-right CDU/CSU bloc, which previously won February's snap election with a disappointing 286 votes.
Immediately following the vote's defeat, a stern-faced Merz retreated with his parliamentary group to strategize on the next steps. It remains unclear whether the rebellion came from dissenters within his own party or from the junior coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), who had been expected to lend their support. Three members abstained from voting, and there was one invalid ballot.
Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the Social Democrats and designated to be Merz's vice-chancellor and finance minister, reportedly reassured his MPs that there had been no indication of a lack of support from the SPD. "We can be counted on," he insisted.
If Merz fails to win in the second round, it would plunge Europe's largest economy into political turmoil, potentially triggering an ongoing leadership struggle or even new elections. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is anticipated to perform well or even emerge victorious in such an outcome. Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, welcomed Merz's failure, suggesting that it highlights the weak foundations of the current coalition.
This political setback disrupts a meticulously planned schedule for the week, where Merz was expected to be sworn in and travel to both Paris and Warsaw, signaling a return to German leadership within the EU after a six-month political limbo following the collapse of Olaf Scholz's government.
Merz had planned to lead ceremonies commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe on Thursday, before heading to Brussels on Friday for discussions with EU and NATO leaders. Aspiring to become the 10th chancellor of the postwar period, he faces a daunting array of domestic and foreign policy challenges unseen since the reunification 35 years ago.
The incoming government will need to rejuvenate a stagnant economy and counter the influence of the far-right, while also maintaining support for Ukraine amidst renewed uncertainty in the transatlantic relationship, particularly in the context of Donald Trump's potential return.
As a corporate lawyer who amassed wealth in the private sector but has never led a state government or ministry, Merz promised robust, well-planned, and reliable governance in these times of profound upheaval when he signed the coalition pact on Monday in Berlin. "That is why we know that it is our historic obligation to lead this coalition to success," he stated, emphasizing the anticipation for Germany to regain its leadership role in Europe.
Notably, Scholz's Social Democrats experienced their worst electoral performance in over a century, garnering just above 16%. Coupled with the CDU/CSU, they possess a slim majority to advance a reform agenda in the Bundestag, where the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin AfD constitutes the largest opposition bloc.
However, Merz is facing a significant popularity deficit among the populace, with widespread mistrust of his often brash demeanor and unpredictable temperament. A recent poll conducted for the public broadcaster ZDF revealed that only 38% of Germans supported him as chancellor, while a striking 56% indicated he was not the right person for the role. Notably, a staggering 62% of Social Democrats express disapproval of him, which foreshadows a gloomy outlook ahead of Tuesday's voting misstep.
Despite the challenges, the coalition formed by the CDU/CSU appears to have garnered stronger backing than Merz himself. While 48% of Germans support the coalition, a significant 37% oppose it, yet nearly half believe the new government lacks the capacity to address the country's most pressing issues.
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