Georgia on the Brink: Upcoming Elections Could Shift Balance Between East and West

Georgians are set to vote in a pivotal election this Saturday that could significantly change the path of their nation once heralded as a beacon of pro-Western aspirations among former Soviet states. For the past three decades, Georgia, a mountainous nation of 3.6 million nestled in the Caucasus, has displayed a consistent desire for European Union membership, with recent polls indicating that up to 80% of its citizens support such a move. However, the political landscape has shifted under the populist Georgian Dream (GD) party, which has begun aligning more closely with Russia while showing a lack of resolve in condemning Moscow's actions, particularly its invasion of Ukraine.

The importance of these elections is underscored by experts such as Kornely Kakachia, director of the Georgian Institute of Politics, who proclaimed this moment as one that will dictate whether Georgia might evolve into a sovereign democracy deeply integrated with the West or regress into Russia’s sphere of influence. Likewise, Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe stressed that the particularly brave face of this election extends beyond mere geopolitical rivalry—it is fundamentally about the future of Georgian democracy itself.

Georgian Dream, in power since 2012, was founded by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire with historical ties to Russia. His influence remains significant even though he has not held public office for over ten years. His party has been known to label opposition members as criminals or traitors and has threatened to ban all major opposition parties following the elections. During a recent public rally, Ivanishvili ominously promised a Nuremberg-style trial for members of the United National Movement (UNM), the main opposition party that was established by former president Mikheil Saakashvili, currently imprisoned on charges deemed politically motivated.

The GD party's campaign slogan emphasizes 'Choose peace not war,' insinuating that the opposition could deepen Georgia’s involvement in a conflict similar to Ukraine's. This narrative resonates especially in regions that were economically and socially scarred by Russia's invasion in 2008, where many locals associate Saakashvili's rule with disastrous policies that led to national distress. Shop owner Maka Khutsishvili highlighted this sentiment: "I am not against Europe, but we border Russia, not France or Germany. No one will come to support us if Russia invades."

In addition to foreign policy tensions, internal dynamics further complicate the election. The GD party champions conservative ideals and has forged alliances with the influential Orthodox Church, promoting anti-liberal sentiments under the banner of family values. Legislative actions against LGBTQ rights mirror developments seen in Russia, fueling discontent among progressive circles.

Georgia's geopolitical significance cannot be understated, serving as a bridge for Central Asian trade with the West, a role that has gained traction as Western nations seek alternatives to Russian energy reliance. Former defense minister Tina Khidasheli warned that a Georgian shift towards authoritarianism would not only symbolize a victory for Russia but for surrounding authoritarian regimes as well.

Despite the gravity of the situation, Georgia’s opposition has strived to unite, forming four pro-European blocs with a commitment to cooperation. However, the UNM party, despite its loyal voter base, remains a source of division due to past grievances connected to Saakashvili’s administration. President Salome Zourabichvili has ruled out any outcome but a victory for pro-European forces, yet observers remain skeptical about whether fair competition can be guaranteed in a context where the ruling party is known to exploit administrative resources to sway results.

Concerns over election integrity have been heightened by fears of result manipulation, which could lead to widespread protests and subsequent violent crackdowns. Observers are also cautious about whether Ivanishvili, if defeated, would relinquish power without resorting to a harmful power struggle, as Georgia’s political history is rife with vendettas.

Recently, tens of thousands of people protested against a proposed foreign agents bill promoting the idea that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) receiving significant foreign funding ought to register as foreign influence agents—a law critics liken to past Russian governmental tactics aimed at stifling dissent in media and civil society. Opposition figures like Zuka Berdzenishvili predict that civil unrest may become unavoidable should the ruling party resist a democratic transition.

As Georgia approaches this crucial election, the stakes could not be higher. The outcome will not only affect the democratic trajectory of the country but could reverberate across the region, influencing global geopolitical balances. With widespread uncertainty and tension palpable, citizens are left to wonder what the future holds for Georgia along with its aspiration for Western integration.

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