Georgia's Pivotal Election: A Battle for Europe or Authoritarianism?
Georgia's ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD), and the pro-Western opposition both claimed victories in a crucial parliamentary election that could shape the country's long-standing ambitions for EU membership. Voters in the Caucasus nation, which has a population of almost four million, went to the polls in what was characterized as a watershed moment that would determine whether this formerly pro-Western state would shift towards a more authoritarian, Russia-aligned future.
Exit polls painted a polarized picture. Some suggested the opposition might secure a majority, whereas others predicted a solid win for GD. Exit polls from pro-opposition channels Formula and Mtavari Arkhi suggested that opposition parties would form a coalition in the 150-seat parliament. Conversely, the GD-supporting Imedi TV exit poll indicated a 56-seat majority for the ruling party.
“We firmly believe that the Georgian public has voted for a future at the heart of Europe,” declared Tinatin Bokuchava, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), who cited an impressive 10% margin for the opposition.
In a contrasting claim, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the powerful founder of GD, declared victory in what has been called the most consequential election since Georgia's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. He stated, "It is rare in the world for one party to achieve such success under such tough circumstances, reflecting the talents of the Georgian people."
Over the past three decades, Georgia has held strong pro-Western aspirations; recent polls indicated that up to 80% of its citizens favor EU membership. However, the current GD government has shown a growing inclination towards Russia, hesitating to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts had warned that the varying partisan exit polls could yield significantly different results, but there was a consensus that GD might emerge as the largest party but without a clear majority, complicating its ability to form a governing coalition.
Notably, the GD party faced a formidable challenge from an unusual alliance of four pro-Western opposition forces, aiming to oust GD from power and revitalize Georgia's EU aspirations. The UNM, which was founded by former president Mikheil Saakashvili—currently incarcerated under contentious abuse of power charges—was expected to secure the second spot in this parliamentary race, followed by the Coalition for Change encompassing several parties led by former UNM leaders.
The election results are expected to draw keen attention from both Moscow and Brussels, with the EU warning that this vote could significantly influence Tbilisi’s prospects for joining the bloc. GD has based its campaign on the narrative that pro-Western opposition groups might lead Georgia into a conflict similar to Ukraine's. This concern is heightened by the lingering memories of the brief but painful war with Russia in 2008.
Critics have voiced apprehension about GD’s authoritarian tendencies, underscored by Ivanishvili's threats to ban major opposition parties if re-elected, suggesting a possible shift toward a one-party state—a drastic departure from Georgia's recent democratic history. Tina Khidasheli, chair of the NGO Civic Idea and a former defense minister, remarked on these alarming trends.
As voters stood in line outside polling stations in central Tbilisi, sentiments varied. Mariam Khvedelidze, a 23-year-old student and supporter of the opposition, emphasized the election's significance for democratic ideals: “Our democracy and future in Europe are at stake. We cannot become puppets of the Kremlin.” Conversely, other citizens expressed support for GD; Elene Kiknadze, a 74-year-old, argued for stability and friendly relations with Russia while highlighting a preference for traditional values, reflecting the ruling party's appeals to conservative sentiments.
The GD government, aligned with the influential Orthodox Church, has sought to galvanize public support through campaigns emphasizing family values while criticizing what they deem as Western excesses. In a sign of social tensions, recent legislation imposing sweeping restrictions on LGBTQ rights has drawn criticism and comparisons to repressive Russian laws.
In response to the challenge posed by opposition factions, Georgia's divided political landscape has prompted attempts to unify under four pro-European blocs, all endorsing the Georgian charter, an initiative to prevent GD from forming a coalition government. Zourabichvili, the largely ceremonial president, stated on social media that "European Georgia is winning."
Despite being granted EU candidate status last year, Georgia's application has been stalled due to backlash against a controversial foreign agents bill reminiscent of Russian measures. Activists have raised concerns about potential electoral manipulation by GD, with instances of alleged ballot tampering and voter intimidation reported.
As the election unfolds, there are warnings of potential civil unrest should the ruling party attempt to interfere with the democratic process. Bokuchava stated, “Georgians will not stand for electoral fraud; they will not let their future be taken from them.” The election’s outcome will likely have significant implications for Georgia's direction—towards Europe or authoritarianism.
Related Sources: