Georgia's Pivotal Elections: A Test of Democracy Amidst Rising Tensions
Georgians head to the polls on Saturday for what may be a pivotal moment in the country's democratic journey with a coalition of pro-Western opposition forces challenging the ruling party, Georgian Dream, which has faced accusations of democratic erosion and a shift towards Moscow. Brussels has characterized the October 26 election as crucial for Georgia's emerging democracy and its long-desired goal of European Union membership.
Opinion polls suggest that opposition parties may gain sufficient votes to form a coalition government and replace the ruling Georgian Dream party, led by influential billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. The current government, however, aims for a supermajority in parliament, allowing them to impose a constitutional ban on the pro-Western opposition.
Analyst Gela Vasadze from Georgia’s Strategic Analysis Centre noted that, historically fragmented, opposition forces have unified to form an unprecedented front against Georgian Dream. However, concerns loom that the ruling party may seek to retain power irrespective of the election’s outcome, risking post-electoral unrest.
Since taking power in 2012, Georgian Dream initially embraced a liberal pro-Western stance, but its agenda has shifted over the past two years. The party's campaign has featured alarming narratives about a supposed global conspiracy exerting control over Western institutions, allegedly trying to embroil Georgia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a recent interview, Ivanishvili depicted a troubling picture of the West, filled with grotesque imagery.
Earlier this year, a controversial foreign influence law proposed by Georgian Dream sparked mass protests and was condemned as a Kremlin-like tactic to suppress dissent. This backlash led to the freezing of Georgia’s EU accession talks and resulted in sanctions from Washington against several Georgian officials.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell recently warned that the actions of Georgian Dream signal a move towards authoritarianism, calling the forthcoming elections a critical test for Georgia's democracy and aspirations towards EU membership.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has pledged to steer Georgia towards EU integration, asserting that relations with the West will stabilize once the Ukraine conflict concludes. Yet, polling indicates that a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided about whom to support.
Recent surveys reveal that the opposition is well-positioned, potentially capturing enough votes to create a coalition government. This coalition includes the United National Movement (UNM), founded by former President Mikheil Saakashvili, and Akhali, a recent party led by former UNM leaders. Together with other smaller parties, they have endorsed a pro-European platform advocating necessary reforms in the electoral, judicial, and law enforcement sectors.
Should they secure enough parliamentary seats, the opposition has agreed to establish an interim multiparty government aimed at implementing reforms before calling for fresh elections, positing that a future vote, held after these reforms, would better reflect voter sentiment.
Despite having characteristics of a democracy, Georgia's political environment remains fragile; elections often trigger mass protests. A recent poll by Edison Research indicated that 34% of decided voters intended to support Georgian Dream, whereas a coalition of opposition parties could rally up to 53%. However, with many voters still undecided, the election remains uncertain.
Polls open at 0400 GMT, closing at 1600 GMT, with exit poll results expected shortly thereafter. The elections, conducted under a proportional party list system, will take place under the watchful eye of international observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
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