Germany's Political Landscape Shifts: AfD Gains but CDU Maintains Lead
PRAGUE, February 23, 2025 - The recent German parliamentary elections have sent shockwaves through Europe's political landscape, as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party recorded its best-ever performance, garnering around 20 percent of the vote. This marks a significant increase compared to their previous results, nearly doubling their share from four years ago. Yet, while the AfD celebrated its gains, the European Union's centrist leaders, along with Germany's mainstream parties, breathed a sigh of relief as the forecasted outcomes came to fruition.
The established center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) party emerged as the clear victor, securing approximately 30 percent of the vote. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is now tasked with the formidable challenge of forming a governing coalition. Merz has expressed a preference for a streamlined coalition with fewer partners, hoping to avoid the complexities that plagued the previous three-party government coalition, which was marked by infighting and ultimately led to snap elections.
Predictably, the AfD will not be included in coalition discussions, as they have been largely shunned by Germany's dominant political entities. The next critical step for Merz will be determining whether he can secure the necessary alliances to achieve a parliamentary majority. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suffered a significant loss in these elections, slipping to just 16 percent of the vote. The Greens, finishing fourth with 14 percent, could also play a role in any potential coalition.
One of the key factors to monitor is whether the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the far-left party run by Sahra Wagenknecht, known as BSW, can clear the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. If both parties succeed, Merz may be forced to navigate a more complex coalition landscape than he desires.
As the clock ticks on Merz's timeline to form a new government, he has set a target for completion by the latter half of April at the latest. Swift action will be essential, considering the pressing issues awaiting the new administration. Following two years of economic recession, voters are likely to expect a tightening of immigration policies, especially in light of recent violent incidents involving immigrants linked to radical Islamic groups.
Moreover, Merz's leadership will be tested in his dealings with the new administration in the United States. Observers are eager to see how the CDU leader aligns with U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly as looming trade tensions threaten Germany's export-driven economy. Trump has indicated plans to impose steep tariffs on German cars, and Merz will need to navigate this turbulent terrain carefully.
Another critical challenge will be Germany’s role in supporting Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict. Merz shares some similarities with Trump—both have backgrounds in business, and they are keen golfers—but it remains to be seen whether that will translate into a productive political relationship. Germany, alongside other European nations, is expected to continue backing Ukraine, both economically and politically.
As this political drama unfolds, Europe is looking to Germany for leadership on pressing issues, including the potential deployment of troops to monitor a ceasefire in Ukraine. Furthermore, many European countries are keen to understand if Germany will relax its staunch opposition to collective EU borrowing, which could enable broader defense spending across the continent in the wake of recent geopolitical tensions.
In summary, while the AfD's significant gains signal a shift in voter sentiment, the CDU/CSU's overall victory outlines a continued preference for centrist governance among the electorate. As Friedrich Merz embarks on the challenging path of coalition-building, the eyes of Europe remain fixed on Germany as they seek a way forward in an increasingly complex political landscape.
Related Sources: