High-Stakes Diplomacy: A Week of Geopolitical Poker in Ukraine
This week began with four European leaders standing defiantly in Kyiv alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy, issuing an ultimatum to Vladimir Putin: sign a ceasefire now, or face sanctions and tough measures alongside Donald Trump. The ensuing days brought a dizzying array of offers, counteroffers, and ultimatums, resembling a high-stakes poker game on a geopolitical level. However, by the end of the week, there was still no ceasefire and no sanctions in sight. Talks were taking place in Istanbul, but little hope remained for a breakthrough, leaving the path to peace as unclear as it had been just a week prior.
Midweek, the Guardian conducted an hour-long interview with Zelenskyy, who had just announced his surprise decision to travel to Turkey for talks. He challenged Putin to join him there, dramatically raising the stakes in the ongoing confrontation. When asked if he felt like he was playing poker, he smiled, saying he was engaging with several players simultaneously.
The week began positively for Zelenskyy, as British leader Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish leader Donald Tusk all visited Kyiv. The five politicians convened on a sofa, and during an open-air press conference outside the Mariinskyi Palace, Macron called Trump, who had just woken up. Although Trump was pleased by their meeting, he offered no firm commitment on sanctions if Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire.
Starmer and Macron outlined an ultimatum for Putin, demanding a ceasefire by Monday night. They stated that if he turned down peace, they would escalate sanctions and military aid for Ukraine’s defense. The ball was now firmly in Putin’s court, although past experiences suggested that the Russian leader might resist the ultimatum, particularly following his extravagant military parade celebrating Soviet victory in World War II—a central element of his nationalist narrative justifying the invasion of Ukraine.
A sign that Putin’s response was unlikely to be constructive emerged from Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and now prominent nationalist voice, who ridiculed the West's threats against Russia on social media. Nevertheless, Putin's reaction was anticipated by Western correspondents, who gathered for a scheduled press conference the Kremlin had arranged to discuss the ultimatum.
When Putin finally appeared, it was close to 2 AM, and the press conference had been reduced to a prepared statement. He dismissed the idea that the West could impose ultimatums on him, asserting that Russia had consistently offered ceasefires, only for Ukraine to reject them. Instead of conceding to the Western demand, he invited talks in Istanbul, undermining the very premise set by the European leaders.
Putin’s suggestion contradicted the clear stance taken by Starmer, Merz, and Macron, who had insisted that a ceasefire must precede any discussions, promising to impose sanctions otherwise. Trump’s response added pressure, telling Kyiv to agree to the meeting immediately while indicating that if no deal came from it, Western leaders would take action in response.
Zelenskyy raised the stakes again, announcing his intention to await a ceasefire starting from the next day and expressing hope that Putin would not make excuses to avoid meeting him in Turkey. This bold move shifted the initiative to Zelenskyy, seemingly calling Putin’s bluff. He described the situation as a careful balancing act, hinting at the complexities of dealing with both Putin and Trump.
As the week progressed, it became evident that a meeting in Turkey was not guaranteed. By Thursday evening, Zelenskyy was in Ankara, while Medinsky, leading a Russian negotiating team, was in Istanbul, but both sides complained about the other not showing up. Throughout the week, Trump was wrapping up his Middle East tour, leaving the possibility of a last-minute dialogue with Putin hanging in the air.
Negotiations finally took place on Friday but lasted less than two hours, prompting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to label them pointless. The prospect of a meaningful resolution seemed distant, as the week concluded without signs of lasting peace or concrete actions on sanctions that had been previously promised by allies.
Zelenskyy, reflecting on the developments, had expressed cautious confidence while playing the diplomatic game, acknowledging that successful negotiations require strategic flexibility. Yet, the ongoing geopolitical turmoil leaves him and Europe uncertain, as calculated diplomatic maneuvers can easily be undermined if key players, like Trump, do not adhere to the agreed-upon framework of the game.
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