High Stakes Talks in Jeddah: Ukraine Seeks Security Amidst Russian Aggression
As Ukrainian and American officials gather for crucial discussions in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday, the pressure is palpable for Kyiv. The aim of these talks, led by U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff, is to establish a framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire in the ongoing conflict initiated by Russia against Ukraine. However, the likelihood of reaching such an agreement seems slim.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, having rescheduled a prior meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Following this engagement, Zelensky and his delegation are set to meet with the American team in Jeddah, as announced via his social media channels. For Ukraine, securing U.S. security guarantees amidst a ceasefire is of paramount importance.
The U.S. delegation, reportedly under the leadership of Steve Witkoff, who previously served as President Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, includes significant figures such as Secretary of State Marc Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. On the Ukrainian side, Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, is at the helm of the delegation, which also comprises Defense Minister Rustem Umierov and Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha—both trusted members of Yermak's inner circle.
Recent tensions from the U.S. side suggest that President Trump may be anticipating a framework agreement that enforces extensive obligations on Ukraine to repay billions received in aid. Despite this, Ukrainian officials express that priority lies in obtaining security guarantees amid any ceasefire or peace arrangement with Russia, which they hope will include the option for Western peacekeeping troops or the maintenance of a robust Ukrainian military.
Contrary to Ukrainian aspirations, President Vladimir Putin has firmly reiterated that Moscow has no intention of relinquishing any territory captured during the conflict. On March 6, he stated, "We do not plan to do this. We must choose a peace option that suits us and secures peace for our country in the long historical perspective. We will not part with our land." His Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, further signaled that the presence of EU peacekeeping forces would be as unacceptable to Russia as NATO involvement.
As outlined by the Latvian intelligence service SAB, there are concerns that Russia may use the supposed peace discussions as a strategic pause to regroup and rearm. Reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate a depletion of personnel and resources within several Russian military units, leading to speculation that Russia may revert to old demands that include Ukraine's neutrality and the reduction of its military. Witkoff's recent comments hint at a willingness to revisit these requirements.
The situation intensified earlier last week when President Trump ordered a cessation of U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine, alongside a halt to intelligence support previously provided to Kyiv. This reduction in support coincided with an increase in Russian aggressions, particularly airstrikes targeting Ukrainian positions. Recent reports suggest that Ukrainian forces near the Kursk border may face encirclement, while Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have surged.
Despite Trump's understanding expressed towards the recent spate of Russian missile attacks, Ukrainian officials and military strategists are growing increasingly concerned. The U.S. ban on providing advanced satellite intelligence to Ukraine was temporarily lifted on Monday, signaling possible shifts in diplomatic and military support—but it remains unclear if U.S. arms deliveries will soon resume. Meanwhile, European allies have stepped in, offering alternative satellite imagery support.
As the conversations in Jeddah commence, the stakes are exceptionally high for Ukraine. The balance between securing crucial security commitments from the U.S. and navigating the complexities of Russian demands poses a precarious challenge. With both Zelensky's government and the U.S. administration under scrutiny, the coming days may significantly impact the ongoing conflict and shape the regional security landscape.
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