Hope for Peace: Evolving Sentiments in Russia Amid US-Russia Diplomacy
After three years of war and western isolation, Russians are beginning to hold hope that recent US-Russia diplomacy could pave a path to peace in Ukraine, restoring the sense of normality lost since their leader sent tanks across the Ukrainian border. Last Tuesday's US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia sparked euphoria among Russia's propagandists and political establishment, who celebrated what they perceive as a real chance to achieve Russia's goals in the conflict, potentially at Ukraine’s expense. This development comes despite Ukraine and its European allies being sidelined from discussions about the future of the invaded nation.
For many Russians, however, the primary concern transcends geopolitics—the urgent desire to end a war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and return to their pre-war lives. Ekaterina Schulmann, a Russian sociologist based in Berlin, stated, "There will be universal joy, not because Russia defeated anyone but because the war has stopped.”
Surveys indicate that while support for Russia's full-scale invasion remains robust, many Russians, particularly in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, yearn for the days when travel to Europe was effortless and shopping options like Zara were plentiful. According to a recent survey by the independent Levada Center in Moscow, a record 61% of Russians favor peace talks over the continuation of the war.
Among the takeaways from the high-level meetings in Riyadh was the US’s eagerness, under President Donald Trump's transactional leadership, to revive economic ties with Russia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that ending the war could serve as a key to unlocking potentially historic economic partnerships. He indicated that the US might consider lifting sanctions against Russia as part of a peace deal.
Russian media quickly seized on Rubio’s words, resulting in speculation about prominent western companies, from Nike to Apple, rushing to re-establish themselves in the country. However, such discussions remain largely theoretical for now. A viable peace path remains elusive, as Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted that his country will not accept unjust terms. European leaders have also resisted the idea of lifting sanctions against Russia, and indications suggest that western firms are not yet poised to return.
Nonetheless, the mood in Moscow hints that many are starting to consider life in a post-war reality. The exodus of western brands following Russia’s full-scale invasion has dramatically altered the landscape of its cities, which now feature local imitations of once-familiar western names in shopping malls.
As thoughts of a potential peace emerge, Moscow’s officials appear divided on whether to welcome western companies back. For some in the Kremlin, the return of western businesses alongside a peace deal favoring Moscow would signify Russia’s reintegration into the international community, despite having instigated the largest war in Europe since World War II. One high-profile Russian businessman remarked that the promises of being a pariah after invading Ukraine were unfounded, stating, "In reality, everyone just chases profits."
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's longtime spokesperson, acknowledged the discussions about foreign businesses returning, while other officials expressed confidence that major financial firms like Mastercard and Visa would seek to reenter the Russian market. However, pushback has also surfaced from influential pro-war nationalist voices who embrace Russia’s current isolation. Some argue that allowing Western brands back into Russia could threaten the market dominance gained by local substitutes since the exit of those companies.
Concerns have been raised that the return of Western firms could reintroduce liberal values that clash with Russia’s conservative wartime ideology. Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, took a firm stance, arguing against trading local production for foreign goods, while asserting that domestic contributions to the military effort would not be compromised.
Discussions among Russian commentators have proposed conditions for Western companies, such as donating to the Russian army and opening stores in occupied Ukrainian cities like Mariupol.
Amidst all this, there are voices in Moscow expressing a bittersweet sentiment regarding a potential end to the war. A public relations consultant, who wished to remain anonymous due to fear of prosecution, noted, "The most important thing is that the war is ending, and people will stop dying," though she lamented that no lessons would be learned should the war conclude with a favorable outcome for Putin, stating, "Everything will go back to normal as if nothing ever happened."
In summary, while the diplomatic overtures between the US and Russia generate cautious optimism about peace in Ukraine, the complex realities on the ground reflect deep divides in public sentiment and the intricate dynamics of post-war reconstruction.
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