Impending Early Elections in Germany: Polls, Parties, and Prospects Ahead of the 2025 Bundestag Vote
In 2025, over 60 million eligible voters in Germany are set to elect a new Bundestag. The election was initially scheduled for September 28, but due to unrest within the traffic light coalition, early elections are now anticipated on February 23, 2025. Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the SPD has declared his intention to pose a question of confidence. If he fails to secure this, which seems likely, the Federal President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, is expected to dissolve the Bundestag as indicated.
As opinion research institutes begin to gauge public sentiment, current polls reveal crucial insights into the shifting political landscape. The latest figures show the Union parties, CDU and CSU, leading significantly with over 30 percent of the vote, a notable improvement from their performance in the 2021 federal elections. On the other hand, the governing traffic light coalition partners, SPD, Greens, and FDP, have seen a dramatic decline in their approval ratings. Currently, the SPD is hovering around 15 percent, while the Greens are just above ten percent. The FDP faces the possibility of falling below the five percent threshold required to gain representation in the Bundestag.
In a surprising turn, the far-right AfD party has gained momentum, placing second with around 20 percent, overtaking the SPD. Meanwhile, the newly formed Alliance party, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, shows signs of waning support, with recent surveys indicating that it may just slightly exceed the five percent threshold by early 2024. Additionally, both the Left party and Free Voters seem unlikely to secure seats in the upcoming Bundestag.
It's important to note that polls merely reflect current political moods and can have inherent uncertainties since they typically involve approximately 1,000 respondents. The Süddeutsche Zeitung has been analyzing these surveys to create a more accurate polling corridor that better represents the potential range of party performance.
The political environment is particularly tense as the current government coalition is no longer intact following Finance Minister Christian Lindner's dismissal along with the resignation of all FDP ministers, leaving the SPD and Greens without a majority in the Bundestag. Current trends indicate that the SPD and Greens together may capsulate at a maximum of 30 percent, which is insufficient for governance. Furthermore, should the original coalition including the FDP attempt a renewed partnership, it appears similarly at a disadvantage as the FDP's prospects of passing the five percent mark remain uncertain.
The tensions arising from the rift in the traffic light coalition will undoubtedly impact polling numbers in the weeks to come, but the direction of this influence remains unclear. The last comprehensive public mood assessment was during the European elections on June 9, 2024, where both CDU/CSU and AfD performed strongly, while the SPD recorded a historical low.
As the electoral race heats up, the pool of chancellor candidates is also taking shape, although it remains uncertain which parties will officially compete. All parties in the Bundestag with at least five seats will appear on the ballot, alongside independent candidates and other parties representing national minorities that can gather sufficient signatures. Currently, four parties have confirmed their chancellor candidates: SPD's Olaf Scholz, CDU/CSU's Friedrich Merz, Greens' Robert Habeck, and AfD's Alice Weidel. The FDP and BSW have not indicated whether they will nominate a candidate, although it appears unlikely.
Under the current electoral framework, the chancellor candidate does not get elected directly; instead, they serve as the party's representative and aspire to become the chancellor if their party wins the election. As campaigns rev up and the political landscape continues to evolve, all eyes will be on the unfolding dynamics leading up to the pivotal early elections.
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