India's Diplomatic Balancing Act: Modi's Meetings with Xi and Putin Amidst Rising Tensions with Trump

On Sunday and Monday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engaged in a series of high-profile meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tientsin, China. The atmosphere was notably cordial; Modi, known for cultivating personal relationships with world leaders, was seen holding hands and sharing lighthearted moments with Putin, all while maintaining a friendly demeanor with Xi. This visit marks Modi's first trip to China in seven years; the two nations have seen particularly strained relations since 2020, making the recent displays of camaraderie noteworthy. The renewed warmth can be viewed as Modi’s strategic response to diplomatic and commercial disputes with US President Donald Trump. For over a decade, Modi has projected himself as a strong leader who commands respect on the international stage, appealing to a domestic base fueled by nationalist sentiments. The recent imposition of a significant 50% tariff by Trump in August is seen as a direct challenge, yet Modi did not falter in his stance. Instead of seeking to placate the Trump administration, he reaffirmed India's strong ties with Russia and pursued a closer engagement with China. This approach could either represent a diplomatic gambit or an important turning point amidst the growing confrontation between the populist leaders Modi and Trump, both known for their strong egos and radical decision-making in the face of perceived attacks. Since its independence in 1947, India has maintained an ambivalent relationship with the world's superpowers, choosing a nonaligned path during the Cold War and resisting binding alliances. However, in more recent decades, there has been a trend towards closer cooperation with Western nations, particularly the United States, which has considered India a strategic ally in Asia against increasing Chinese influence. Modi’s relationship with Trump had previously flourished, especially during Trump’s first term (2017-2021), which was welcomed in India. Tensions, however, escalated following recent clashes and bombings in Kashmir involving Pakistan; Modi's government downplayed any mediation role that the US claimed to have played. This downplaying was crucial for Modi, who had built a nationalist narrative around the Kashmir situation, as conceding any influence to the US would have shown weakness. The situation further deteriorated with Trump’s tariff imposition, which Modi’s administration condemned, asserting that it was punitive for India’s purchases of Russian oil. In light of the tariffs, Modi has not shown an eagerness to renegotiate terms; public sentiment in India has turned increasingly critical of the US, particularly in response to Trump’s comments that disparaged the Indian economy while indicating possible economic alliances with Pakistan. This rhetoric has further polarized diplomatic interaction, complicating immediate mediation efforts between the nations. Notably, Trump's attempts to reach Modi over the phone have gone unanswered, and the two leaders have not communicated since June 17. A much-anticipated meeting due at the end of September appears increasingly uncertain. Meanwhile, Modi has pivoted towards ensuring greater self-sufficiency in India, vowing to protect the interests of local entrepreneurs. During his recent visit to China, which coincided with bilateral talks at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting—an alliance led by China and Russia—the discussions failed to yield significant outcomes but did indicate a thawing of tensions between India and China. Previously fraught interactions, especially following border skirmishes in Galwan Valley, had led to travel restrictions and trade barriers. Recent discussions have suggested a mutual interest in expanding cooperation, with both leaders acknowledging advancements in resolving territorial disputes and reiterating that India will continue to buy Russian oil despite international pressures. However, the true significance of Modi's meetings with Xi and Putin remains ambiguous. It raises the question of whether these encounters mark a genuine strategic reorientation for India or serve primarily as a public relations exercise aimed at revamping Modi's image as a formidable global leader. Modi is also poised to position India as a viable alternative for low-cost production in the tech sector, countering China's manufacturing dominance even as US economic ties remain crucial for India’s growth. As Modi’s image continues to intertwine with national pride and economic independence, the outcome of these diplomatic balancing acts will shape the future of India's political landscape and its international relations. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2