Intimidation Campaign by Russian Intelligence Targets Belgian Officials Amid Ukraine Funding Debate

Belgian politicians and senior finance executives are currently facing intimidation tactics reportedly orchestrated by Russian intelligence, aimed at persuading the government to oppose the utilization of €185 billion in frozen assets for Ukraine, according to European intelligence sources. Security officials have informed The Guardian that there has been a focused attack on key individuals associated with Euroclear, the securities depository that holds most of Russia's immobilized assets, as well as various leaders in the country. As EU leaders convene in Brussels to deliberate on authorizing significant loans for Ukraine, which are to be secured against Russian central bank assets critical for sustaining Ukraine's military efforts through 2026 and 2027, concerns surrounding the intimidation campaign have risen. Although there is some debate regarding the severity of the threat posed, officials believe that Russia's military intelligence (GRU) is responsible for these tactics intended to create pressure on Belgian officials. Belgium is currently under scrutiny because approximately €185 billion of Russia’s €210 billion in frozen central bank assets is held at Euroclear, based in Brussels. On Thursday and Friday, EU leaders are set to consider a proposal for an initial €90 billion loan, secured against these frozen assets. However, Belgium has expressed reservations about the legality of this arrangement and stated it would only support the proposal if guarantees are made that Euroclear would be fully reimbursed should Russia win any legal challenge. In conjunction with this financial pressure, Russia has publicly indicated that utilizing these assets would be considered theft, with the Russian central bank seeking €230 billion in damages from Euroclear through legal actions initiated in Belgian courts. Reports suggest that the intimidation campaign has specifically targeted influential figures, including Valérie Urbain, Euroclear's CEO, and other senior executives within the organization. Euroclear has refrained from making public comments on the threats but stated that any potential threats are rigorously investigated, often with assistance from respective authorities. A recent investigation by EUobserver mentioned threats directed at Urbain, leading her to seek police protection, which was not granted. Consequently, she, alongside other executives, opted to hire a Belgian and then a French security firm for personal protection. A profile of Urbain in Le Monde noted that she has been accompanied by bodyguards for over a year, although she did not directly address the issue of security. In early December, Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever remarked during an interview that it is naive to assume that Russian President Vladimir Putin would passively accept the confiscation of Russian assets, even insinuating that there would be long-lasting ramifications for Belgium. De Wever's statements have echoed sentiments expressed in previous remarks concerning the legal and financial hazards facing Western firms operating in relation to frozen Russian assets. He specifically referenced potential Russian countermeasures that could include the confiscation of Western assets frozen in Russian banks and aggressive actions against Western companies operating in jurisdictions supportive of these measures. A spokesperson for De Wever declined to comment on the alleged threats against Belgian ministers or Euroclear's leadership, citing safety concerns. Meanwhile, Belgium's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister Maxime Prévot, who has been involved in discussions surrounding the reparations loan, stated that there was no information available pertaining to threats against him. In contrast, the UK government, which retains approximately £27 billion of Russia's frozen assets, has expressed support for utilizing immobilized funds to benefit Ukraine. Belgium has consistently pushed for other nations holding Russian assets—collectively estimated at around €290 billion worldwide—to exhibit solidarity and take similar actions to mitigate legal risks involved. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged businessman Roman Abramovich to release £25 billion of proceeds from the 2022 sale of Chelsea Football Club within 90 days or face legal repercussions, indicating the British government's ambition for all funds to be directed towards victims of the war in Ukraine. However, Abramovich has maintained that he also desires compensation for Russian victims. Ukrainian officials and analysts have underscored the necessity of the EU loan to maintain their war efforts in the coming years. Nataliia Shapoval, head of the KSE Institute in Kyiv, highlighted the urgent need for an additional €50 billion in external financing by 2026, with only half of that sum already committed. She pointed out that dependable cash flows are crucial for Ukraine's defense ministry to procure essential military supplies and fund future capital investments in its armament industry. While Ukraine can manage through the early months of the coming year without the EU’s additional support, significant challenges are expected to arise in the second quarter and intensify in the latter half of the year, potentially forcing Kyiv to reduce defense budgets and make challenging trade-offs concerning social expenditures. Ukrainian officials are hopeful that finalizing an EU funding agreement could exert financial pressures on Russia in the medium term, as approximately 38% of Russia’s state budget is projected to be allocated towards military funding next year, with forecasts suggesting a total budget gap of around €70 billion by the end of this fiscal year. Related Sources: • Source 1 • Source 2