Investigation Underway into Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash Amid Speculation

Russia and Kazakhstan have come forward to address the swirling speculation surrounding the tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane on Christmas Day that resulted in the deaths of 38 individuals. The Kremlin has urged the public to refrain from jumping to conclusions until the official investigation is complete.

The aircraft, an Embraer 190, was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny, Russia when it veered off course and crashed in a field near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Reports indicate that 29 passengers survived the ordeal, but many were critically injured.

In the wake of the crash, Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian national security official, suggested that Russian air defense fire might have downed the plane. Video footage allegedly shows the aircraft plummeting to the ground, engulfed in flames and sending up thick black smoke as it crashed.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on Thursday that the investigation into the crash's cause is ongoing and emphasized that speculating on its origin before the inquiry has concluded would be inappropriate. Concurrently, the Kazakh Senate Chair Maulen Ashimbayev stated that there was no known cause for the incident, assuring that all pertinent information would be shared with the public once available.

Speculation has also arisen in Russian media, where some claim that the aircraft may have been mistaken for a Ukrainian drone and subsequently shot down. The Fighterbomber Telegram channel, which is believed to have ties to the Russian military, released footage suggesting that the damage to the aircraft's wreckage appeared consistent with shrapnel or shelling, rather than a bird strike.

Kazakh aviation expert Serik Mukhtybayev cast doubt on the bird strike claim, asserting that such an incident was highly improbable given the altitude at which the plane was flying at the time of the crash. Flight tracking data indicated erratic changes in altitude and a figure-eight flight pattern as it neared Aktau.

Additionally, FlightRadar24 noted potential GPS jamming experienced by the aircraft, which reportedly transmitted faulty data. Historical reports have pointed to Russia's involvement in jamming GPS signals in the region, suggesting that such measures may have been enacted to thwart drone attacks ahead of the crash. Just hours before, local authorities in Chechnya announced that all drones in the area had been successfully intercepted.

Ukrainian drone activity in Chechnya has increased recently, raising concerns about regional stability. Meanwhile, Russian pro-war bloggers have weighed in, drawing parallels between the observed damage to the plane and that of anti-aircraft missile systems.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev urged caution regarding speculation about the cause of the crash, pointing to adverse weather conditions as a contributing factor in the plane's deviation from its planned route. Nevertheless, Russia's civil aviation authority noted that preliminary findings suggest an emergency may have arisen due to a bird strike.

In the wake of the incident, Azerbaijan's prosecutor general has initiated a criminal investigation, dispatching a delegation, including the emergency situations minister and a deputy prosecutor, to undertake an on-site assessment.

Kazakhstan's transport prosecutor Timur Suleimenov provided an update, confirming that investigators have located the aircraft's black box, which will be crucial in piecing together the events leading up to the crash. A spokesperson for Kazakhstan's emergency ministry disclosed that efforts are underway to identify the deceased victims, while 11 of the survivors remain in intensive care. Additionally, nine Russian nationals, including a child, were evacuated to Moscow following the crash.

As investigations continue, the families of the victims and the survived are left to grapple with the aftermath of this tragedy, while authorities seek the truth behind the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight.

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